Jefferies market intelligence analyst Dan Kirsche said the current pullback in U.S. equities may offer investors a rare chance to add exposure, even as technology shares remain under pressure. He argued that the market’s advance is broadening beyond tech, while lighter positioning pressure and easing Treasury yields are improving the backdrop for risk assets. Kirsche expects U.S. stocks to post strong performance in November and December.
He pointed to a roughly 5% retreat in the Nasdaq from its high, while the S&P 500 equal-weight index has rebounded about 7% to 8% from its low, a sign that weakness in large-cap technology has not stopped gains in other parts of the market. At the same time, he said the S&P 500 could still revisit its 100-day moving average near 7,600.
Kirsche also said the correction risk in semiconductors has not fully passed. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen for eight straight sessions and is on track for its longest losing streak since May 2006. BTIG analyst Jonathan Krinsky said the index may see a short-term bounce after the slide, but still faces room for more downside over the medium term. Kirsche identified 11,000 as the next key support level and expects the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to fall from about 5.13% to 5.00%, and then to 4.8%.
BlockBeats reported on Oct. 17 that Jefferies market intelligence analyst Dan Kirsche said current volatility in U.S. equities could give investors a rare entry window, even though technology stocks remain under pressure. He said the market rally is spreading into more sectors, while positioning pressure has eased and Treasury yields have moved lower. Based on that setup, he expects U.S. stocks to perform strongly in November and December.
Market strength is widening beyond technology
Kirsche said the Nasdaq has pulled back about 5% from its high. Over the same period, the S&P 500 equal-weight index has rebounded about 7% to 8% from its low, suggesting that weakness in tech has not prevented other sectors from moving higher.
S&P 500 could retest its 100-day average
Even so, he said the S&P 500 may still retest its 100-day moving average near 7,600.
Semiconductor weakness remains in focus
Kirsche said the adjustment risk in semiconductor shares has not yet cleared. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has declined for an eighth straight session and is set to mark its longest losing streak since May 2006.
BTIG analyst Jonathan Krinsky said the index could see a short-term rebound after the run of losses, but still has room to move lower over the medium term.
Kirsche identified 11,000 as the next important support level for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
Treasury yield outlook
On rates, Kirsche expects the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to fall from about 5.13% to 5.00%, before moving lower to 4.8%.
This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan. Disclaimer:
The market information, project data, and third-party content displayed on this platform are for industry information sharing only and do not constitute any form of investment advice or return commitment.
Cryptocurrency trading carries high risks. Users should fully assess their risk tolerance and make independent decisions. All profits, losses, and legal responsibilities are borne by the users themselves.
