JPMorgan turns cautious on gold in the near term
According to a July 4 report cited by BlockBeats, JPMorgan said gold prices may be capped in the short term as weaker demand reduces upside momentum. The bank expects the metal to remain largely rangebound rather than continue a sharp one-way rally. Its reasoning centers on softer purchasing power across key areas of demand, which could limit the market’s ability to absorb higher prices.
JPMorgan also noted that gold has become sensitive again to changes in real interest rates. That matters because shifts in the rate environment tend to affect the relative appeal of non-yielding assets. In practical terms, the bank’s message is not outright bearish, but it does imply that the near-term setup is less supportive than it was when demand and macro tailwinds were more aligned.
The bank’s stance suggests a distinction between tactical and strategic views. Tactically, the market may struggle to generate sustained upside if buying power weakens and rate sensitivity reasserts itself. Strategically, however, gold still retains a role in portfolio construction, especially in periods of macro uncertainty and reserve diversification.
H2 2026 outlook: gradual recovery toward $4,300 and $4,500
Despite a more restrained short-term view, JPMorgan remains bullish over the medium to long term. It projects that gold will gradually recover in the second half of 2026. Specifically, the bank expects the average gold price in Q3 2026 to be around $4,300 per ounce, followed by a rise to roughly $4,500 per ounce in Q4 2026.
These figures indicate that JPMorgan is not calling for a reversal of the broader uptrend. Instead, it sees a market that may pause or consolidate before resuming higher. For professional investors, that distinction is important: a near-term rangebound phase does not invalidate a constructive medium-term thesis if the underlying drivers remain intact.
The forecast also implies that timing matters. Short-run market behavior may be shaped by demand elasticity and rate dynamics, while later price recovery could depend on the return of stronger structural and official-sector buying. In that framework, volatility and consolidation become part of the path rather than evidence against the longer-term view.
2027 upside case rests on central banks and structural demand
Looking into 2027, JPMorgan said gold could continue its advance. The bank highlighted three main supports: continued purchases by central banks, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation demand. Together, these forces are expected to reinforce the metal’s medium- and long-term price floor.
From JPMorgan’s perspective, those drivers also support gold’s enduring role as both a safe-haven asset and a reserve asset. That is a key point for macro and cross-asset market participants, because it frames gold not merely as a short-term inflation or risk hedge, but as an asset with continuing institutional relevance in global allocation decisions.
In sum, the bank’s view combines short-term caution with longer-term optimism: weaker demand and renewed real-rate sensitivity may keep gold rangebound for now, but central bank accumulation, improving physical demand, and structural portfolio demand could still push prices higher through late 2026 and into 2027. Source: https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/354530