JPMorgan says gold may stay range-bound in the near term
According to a July 4 update cited by BlockBeats, JPMorgan said gold prices could face near-term constraints as demand softens, leaving the market more likely to trade in a range than extend a sharp upside move. The bank attributed this short-term pressure mainly to weaker purchasing power across key areas of demand, which in turn reduces support for further price appreciation.
JPMorgan also noted that gold has become sensitive to movements in real interest rates again. In practical terms, that means macro rate fluctuations may have a more direct impact on bullion pricing than they did during periods when other drivers dominated. From the bank’s perspective, this renewed rate sensitivity could cap upside in the short run, even if the broader structural case for gold remains intact.
Medium-term outlook remains bullish, with H2 2026 price targets rising
Despite a cautious near-term view, JPMorgan maintained its constructive medium- and long-term stance on gold. The bank expects prices to recover progressively in the second half of 2026. Its forecast calls for an average gold price of about $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter, followed by a move to around $4,500 per ounce in the fourth quarter.
This framing suggests that JPMorgan sees current weakness as a matter of timing rather than a reversal of the larger trend. Softer demand and greater exposure to real-rate dynamics may delay upside momentum, but they do not, in the bank’s assessment, invalidate the longer-term allocation case for gold. The near-term drag is therefore presented as cyclical pressure rather than structural deterioration.
What could support gold in 2027
Looking ahead to 2027, JPMorgan believes gold could continue to climb. The bank highlighted three main drivers: ongoing central bank purchases, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation demand. Together, these factors form the foundation of its bullish long-range view.
In that framework, gold’s role as a safe-haven asset and a reserve asset remains central. Continued official-sector buying, combined with steady demand from long-horizon allocators, could help reinforce price support over time. For market participants tracking macro hedges and reserve diversification, JPMorgan’s note points to a market that may be limited in the short term but still supported by durable longer-cycle demand.