Jump Trading Group is putting more resources into prediction markets, expanding its dedicated team to about 20 people this year after doubling its size, with more hiring still planned. According to Bloomberg, the high-frequency trading firm sees the once-niche business of event-based contracts developing into a durable asset class on Wall Street rather than a temporary trading fad.
The push comes as prediction market volumes have climbed to record levels around major events such as the World Cup. Platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi have drawn rising participation from retail traders, institutions and market makers, turning the segment into a more active venue for event-driven trading tied to elections, sports, economic data and crypto-related outcomes.
Simon Johansen, who leads prediction markets at Jump Trading, said the firm believes the market is moving from the margins toward becoming part of the broader financial system, with substantial room left to grow. Bloomberg said traditional quantitative trading firms are also moving in, using their experience in liquidity provision, pricing models and high-frequency execution to build more professional trading infrastructure. Even so, regulatory questions remain unresolved, including whether event contracts should be treated as financial products, whether they overlap with gambling, and how insider-trading risks should be handled as institutional capital continues to enter the market.
Jump Trading Group is expanding its push into prediction markets, betting that a sector once seen as niche will become a lasting asset class on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg, as cited by Odaily.
After major events such as the World Cup helped lift trading volumes in prediction markets to new highs, Jump has doubled the size of its prediction market team this year to about 20 people. The firm is still hiring.
Jump sees room for long-term growth
Simon Johansen, head of prediction markets at Jump Trading, said the company believes prediction markets are moving beyond the fringe and developing into part of a more mature financial market.
He said the sector still has significant room to expand. In recent years, prediction markets have grown quickly, with platforms letting users trade around political elections, sporting events, economic data and crypto market outcomes.
Polymarket and Kalshi draw more participants
Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi are attracting a growing mix of retail traders, institutions and market makers. As trading activity expands, traditional quantitative trading firms have also started entering the space.
Bloomberg said those firms are bringing liquidity provision, pricing models and high-frequency trading capabilities, giving prediction markets more professional trading infrastructure.
Regulatory questions remain open
People in the market said prediction markets are going through a phase similar to the early development of crypto derivatives, with the potential to become an important trading venue linking finance, media and information markets.
The sector still faces regulatory challenges, including whether event contracts should be classified as financial products, whether they fall under gambling rules, and how insider-trading risks should be addressed. As institutional capital keeps entering the market, the trend toward compliance and financialization may accelerate.
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