According to the latest data from Kalshi, the market tied to this year’s July Federal Reserve decision is pricing a 79% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged. The same market shows a 20% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut stands at just 2%.
Leaving rates unchanged refers to the Federal Reserve keeping its policy rate at the current level. A 25-basis-point move equals 0.25 percentage point. The figures come from Kalshi’s listed market for the relevant Federal Reserve meeting and represent how participants in that market are pricing the possible outcomes for the July decision.
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