Latest data from Kalshi shows that markets are pricing a 79% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. The same market data assigns a 20% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is listed at just 2%.
The figures indicate that the main outcome reflected on Kalshi’s July Fed decision market is no change in rates. A 25-basis-point hike remains the second-largest priced outcome in the data, while a 25-basis-point cut accounts for a much smaller share. The data comes from Kalshi’s market page for the July Federal Reserve meeting contract.
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