Latest data from Kalshi shows that market bets on the Federal Reserve’s July rate decision are concentrated on no change in policy. According to the figures displayed on the platform, traders are pricing a 79% probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged at the July meeting.
The same Kalshi market assigns a 20% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut stands at just 2%. The data presents three outcomes for the July decision: no change, a 25-basis-point hike, or a 25-basis-point cut, with the unchanged-rate outcome holding the largest share of market pricing.
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