Latest data from Kalshi show that the market is assigning a 79% probability to the Federal Reserve leaving policy unchanged at its July meeting this year. In this context, leaving policy unchanged refers to the Fed standing pat rather than changing rates, and it is the highest-probability outcome listed in the reported Kalshi data.
The same Kalshi data put the probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at 20%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is only 2%. The figures come from Kalshi’s market page for the July Federal Reserve decision and describe how that market is currently positioned across the three listed outcomes.
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