The Odaily editorial team's 'Tea Party' column provides a professional, unfiltered take on market events, data, and investment hypotheses. This edition focuses on the Kondratieff wave theory applied to crypto, SPCX options chain analysis, and Ethereum's evolving institutional adoption. The following insights are based on real trading and observation experience and are not investment advice.
Kondratieff Wave: Crypto Enters Mid-to-Late Cycle
Using the Kondratieff wave framework, if ChatGPT’s launch marks the start of the AI cycle, we are in the early-to-mid stage, favoring semiconductor, storage, and photonics stocks. Conversely, if Bitcoin’s genesis marks the start of the crypto cycle, the market has likely transitioned into the mid-to-late phase. The editorial team suggests there may be one or two more manic rallies in crypto, but thereafter it will gradually move into Kondratieff’s third and fourth phases, similar to China’s real estate market in 2015–2016. This implies waning secular growth, urging investors to shift from mass adoption narratives to more selective, risk-adjusted strategies.
SPCX Options: High Call OI and Gamma Squeeze Risks
SPCX (SpaceX-linked stock) options began trading on June 16, with massive call buying immediately. Given SPCX’s extremely low float (4.2%), analysts anticipated a gamma squeeze, but instead the stock crashed, benefiting shorts. As of late June, SPCX trades around $156. The largest open interest (OI) is not on the put side but concentrated at $170, $180, $200, and even $300 calls. The $180 strike stands out with over 16K contracts, the highest call OI. With only two days to expiry and no major catalyst, $180 is effectively the ceiling.
The real battleground is near $160. OI in the $160–165 range is extremely dense, suggesting market makers will pin the price there to harvest options premium. However, after the violent selloff, significant capital is still betting on a sharp rebound. If SPCX can break above $165 and hold $170, another gamma squeeze is possible. The team warns against opening high-leverage positions in the $155–160 'no-man’s land.' Strategy: either wait for a volume-confirmed break above $160 or a dip to $145–150. In practice, the editor stubbornly waited for $145 but the low was $147, missing a subsequent swing to $165.
Market Signal Flags: BTC Bottom and Ethereum Restructuring
On macro signals: Strategy’s STRC preferred shares, reportedly conceived by Michael Saylor using AI, are now widely seen as having a death spiral risk. As the market bellwether, BTC likely needs to break below $49,000 (the 'iron bottom') before the next bull market begins. Meanwhile, the 'old stock' vs 'young stock' concept is gaining traction; many China-conceptual stocks (including baijiu) are deemed near their end, and the team advises focusing on 'young stocks' with growth potential.
Ethereum-related: The Ethereum Foundation has initiated layoffs and established Ethlabs, an independent non-profit R&D organization backed by co-founder Joe Lubin, Bitmine, and SharpLink. Ethlabs aims to drive institutional adoption by improving scaling, settlement, and interoperability. The Foundation’s 'slimming' also means less direct intervention, accelerating Ethereum’s decentralization. The editorial team believes Ethereum’s fundamentals are solid but undervalued. Although many suffered opportunity costs buying from $4,000 down, the current price offers a long-term accumulation opportunity. ETH’s target is a retest of the prior low around $890 within the year.
Other Observations: World Cup and Trading Psychology
After the first round of the World Cup group stage, top teams have regained form. The team maintains their prior strategy: buying championship picks, as odds still offer an edge. As always, these are exploratory views, not financial advice. The column’s purpose is to expand perspectives and provide alternative sources, not to create consensus.
