At the macro level, marginal changes in Fed policy expectations continue to dominate risk asset pricing. After a period of consolidation, the crypto market sees intensified divergence between bulls and bears at key price levels. This weekly review employs a framework combining multi-timeframe structure analysis and quantitative model signals to assess BTC and HYPE for the coming week and formulate short-to-medium-term trading plans. This article is a personal technical analysis record and does not constitute investment advice.
1. BTC Structure Analysis and Trading Strategy
On the 4-hour chart, BTC's rebound from the June 5 low of $59,100 can be subdivided into five segments (36-37, 37-38, 38-39, 39-40, 40-41), forming a short-term ascending channel. The upper rail connects the highs of endpoints 37 and 39, while the lower rail connects the lows of endpoints 36 and 38. Price has broken below the lower rail at endpoint 40, and the current 40-41 rebound segment is a pullback confirmation phase. If endpoint 41 fails to recapture the lower rail, the probability of retesting the prior low of $59,100 increases significantly. Key support levels: first support zone $59,000–$60,000 (previous important support); second support around $55,000 (also previous important support).
Regarding trading strategy, the position monitoring model shows price has effectively broken below the "long-short channel," confirming a bearish market structure. Following last week's plan, short positions were initiated near $64,500 with an initial medium-term position size of about 20% of total capital. The plan is to adhere to stop-loss discipline and wait for further accumulation opportunities. Short-term strategy: use 30% of capital with stop-losses, look for spread opportunities based on support/resistance levels, operating on 30-min/60-min timeframes. Three specific contingency plans (A/B/C) have been prepared in advance to handle complex market developments.
2. HYPE Structure Analysis and Trading Strategy
On the 4-hour chart, HYPE began a correction from the June 2 high of $75.87 (endpoint 47) and found support near $52.62 (endpoint 50) on June 10, after about 9 trading days. It then entered a strong upward leg (50-51), breaking above the previous high in 6 trading days to reach a new high of $76.94, the highest since January, indicating robust bullish momentum. The subsequent decline from the high exhibits a clear three-segment corrective structure (51-52, 52-53, 53-54). Price has now pulled back to the key support zone of $64–$66.
Key resistance levels: first resistance near $77, second resistance zone $80–$82. Trading strategy: when HYPE retests the $64–$66 support zone or deeper $52–$54 zone and shows signs of stabilization, combined with bottom signals from two models, consider light long positions with position size strictly below 30% and strict stop-loss discipline.
3. Risk Disclaimer
Financial markets change rapidly; all analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. The views, models, and strategies herein are based on personal technical analysis, serving only as personal trading journal records, and do not constitute any investment advice or trading basis. Markets carry risks; invest cautiously and do not rely on this content for decisions.
