A Morgan Stanley research note, cited by Chaoxiang Research and reported by ChainCatcher, says disclosed off-balance-sheet commitments from hyperscalers, Nvidia and Broadcom have climbed past $3.1 trillion. The total includes $1.1 trillion in lease commitments and $1.7 trillion in purchase commitments, while on-balance-sheet debt and lease liabilities at hyperscalers stand at a combined $770 billion.
The note also points to mounting pressure on cash generation. Amazon and Google had negative free cash flow in the second quarter of 2026, and Meta is expected to follow in the next quarter. Morgan Stanley argues that financing tools are reshaping the capital structure behind AI compute through six channels, including off-balance-sheet leasing and purchase commitments, a rise in debt issuance share from 2% in 2025 to 19% in 2026, and Google freeing up $110 billion by cutting buybacks and issuing equity.
The report also highlights Oracle’s $4.6 billion in customer prepayments in the second quarter and chip-leasing SPVs launched by Broadcom and Nvidia to support unrated AI labs. Morgan Stanley’s conclusion is that changes in financing structures and accounting judgments now matter almost as much as chip shipment volumes in tracking the AI supply chain.
ChainCatcher, citing Chaoxiang Research, reported that a Morgan Stanley research note said disclosed off-balance-sheet commitments from hyperscalers, Nvidia and Broadcom have exceeded $3.1 trillion.
Off-balance-sheet commitments top $3.1 trillion
According to the note, the total includes $1.1 trillion in lease commitments and $1.7 trillion in purchase commitments. It also said hyperscalers carry a combined $770 billion in on-balance-sheet debt and lease liabilities.
Cash flow and funding mix are shifting
Morgan Stanley said Amazon and Google posted negative free cash flow in the second quarter of 2026. Meta is expected to follow in the next quarter.
The note said financing tools are reshaping the capital structure of AI compute through six channels. Off-balance-sheet leasing and purchase commitments form the first layer of financing. The share of debt issuance rose from 2% in 2025 to 19% in 2026. Google freed up $110 billion by cutting buybacks and issuing equity. Oracle recorded $4.6 billion in customer prepayments in the second quarter. Broadcom and Nvidia launched chip-leasing SPVs to support unrated AI labs.
Morgan Stanley’s view
Morgan Stanley said that when financing structure itself becomes a core variable in the AI supply chain, tracking off-balance-sheet commitments and changes in accounting judgments is becoming nearly as important as tracking chip shipment volumes.
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