ChainCatcher reported that on-chain analyst Murphy said long-term holder, or LTH, net holdings have reached another all-time high. As of June 17, LTH net holdings stood at 14.96 million BTC, 20,000 BTC above the previous high formed on March 27. Murphy noted that this is the second time since BTC entered the bear market that LTH net holdings have set a new record.
Long-Term Holders Now Control 75% of Circulating BTC
According to Murphy, an increasing amount of BTC is no longer willing to participate in short-term trading and turnover. He said 75% of the total circulating supply is now held by LTHs. The data points to a continued rise in net holdings among long-term holders, while the portion of BTC involved in shorter-term circulation has declined in relative terms.
Murphy said that, historically, the bottom of each bear market usually appears after LTH net holdings begin to recover. In his framing, the sequence is first a “rebound in holdings,” followed by the “formation of a bottom.” For that reason, the recovery of LTH net holdings and the scale of any subsequent distribution are key indicators in his observation of the BTC cycle.
Current Cycle Marks the Second New High
Murphy also compared the current cycle with the previous one. In the last cycle, LTH net holdings reached new highs three times, and each was followed by a strong distribution event. He said those three distributions corresponded to periods when the Federal Reserve released expectations of rate hikes, the Luna collapse occurred, and FTX failed.
For the current cycle, Murphy said LTH net holdings have now reached a new high for the second time. In his view, the key issue is not which numbered new high this is, but whether the previous LTH distribution scales have shown a clear step-by-step decline. If the scale of the current distribution is lower than the prior one, he said it would show that selling pressure is gradually being exhausted, and that the true bear-market bottom has already appeared or is not far away.