Odaily reported that crypto analyst Murphy said Strategy is not currently facing a preferred stock repayment crisis. According to his assessment, Bitcoin would need to fall to $26,000 to break through Strategy’s preferred stock layer. To break through the debt layer, Bitcoin would need to drop to $8,000. On that basis, Murphy argued that Strategy remains a considerable distance away from forced liquidation.
STRC Depeg Seen as Pressure on Strategy Itself
Murphy noted that a comparable product, SATA, has remained above $99 this week, while STRC has depegged. In his view, the contrast indicates that the selling pressure in this episode is aimed more at Strategy itself, rather than at a flaw in the design of the related products. The STRC depeg, under this reading, should not be treated as evidence that the broader category of similar products has failed.
He described the current situation as a repricing of leverage and credit. Murphy said the consumption of cash reserves, together with the amplification of the first signal of Bitcoin selling, has led to a contraction in liquidity. However, he distinguished that from a liquidation crisis. At the current price level, Strategy’s “flywheel model” has temporarily stopped, but Murphy does not see the company as already entering a forced liquidation stage.
Bitcoin Price Path Determines Whether the Model Restarts
Murphy said the next phase of Bitcoin’s price movement will determine whether this episode is a mid-cycle adjustment or the beginning of a deeper risk phase. He also said that comparing the STRC depeg with the previous cycle’s UST depeg and LUNA collapse is a clear overinterpretation.
Within Murphy’s framework, if Bitcoin’s price rebounds and equity ATM financing restarts, Strategy is expected to rebuild its cash reserves and restart its capital operation model. His core conclusion is that the STRC depeg reflects a repricing of Strategy’s credit and leverage structure, rather than an already triggered preferred stock repayment crisis or a forced liquidation crisis.