SpaceX is set to enter the Nasdaq-100 after Nasdaq changed its index inclusion rules, a move that will force passive funds tracking the benchmark to buy an estimated $4.3 billion of the stock in after-hours trading. IBTimes reported that the company will officially join the index at the start of trading on July 7, only weeks after posting a record $85.7 billion IPO.
New rule cut the waiting period to 15 trading days
The fast inclusion stems from a Nasdaq rule that took effect on May 1. Under the older framework, newly listed companies had to wait at least three months and maintain a public float of 10% before becoming eligible for the Nasdaq-100. The revised rule created a fast-track path for very large IPOs: if a new listing ranks among the top 40 companies by market value in the index universe, the waiting period drops to 15 trading days.
The report said the change effectively cleared the path for SpaceX, whose market value stands at $1.75 trillion. That gave Nasdaq a way to lock in one of the market’s highest-profile listings, while early investors gained a clean source of liquidity through forced index buying. The decision drew strong criticism. Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig called it arbitrary, unfair, and risky, while the Financial Times described the setup as what could become the biggest “bagholder exercise” on record.
Tight float and weighting mechanics magnify the demand shock
The structure of the stock has become the center of the debate. SpaceX has only 3% to 5% of its total shares in public hands, yet Nasdaq uses a floating-weight multiplier of as much as 3x in calculating index weight. That sharply increases how much passive money must buy relative to the stock actually available for trading.
Traders had already moved ahead of the rebalance. After the index inclusion news, quantitative strategies and momentum funds pushed SpaceX from its IPO price of $135 to a high of $225.64. The stock has since pulled back to about $162, but passive investors buying through index products are still paying roughly 20% above the IPO price.
S&P 500 kept SpaceX out under stricter standards
Nasdaq’s approach stands in contrast to the S&P 500, which has not admitted SpaceX. According to the report, the S&P 500 requires a 12-month waiting period, positive GAAP earnings, and at least 10% public float. SpaceX does not meet those standards because it posted a large loss in the first quarter of 2026 and its public float remains in the 3% to 5% range.
The company’s fundamentals are mixed. Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025 and is the only profitable division, with an EBITDA margin of 63%. But the newly combined AI unit xAI burned $2.5 billion in the first quarter this year, leaving the broader company deeply unprofitable.
August 6 is the next date markets are watching
IBTimes pointed to August 6, 2026 as the next major test. That date marks SpaceX’s first public earnings release and also the first insider lockup expiration, with about 20% of shares becoming eligible for sale.
Historical data cited in the report shows that newly added Nasdaq-100 stocks have often struggled in the near term, with an average first-day decline of 1.13% and an average 3.41% drop over the first five trading days. Once the forced passive bid fades, the stock may face a very different supply-demand setup.