Natixis expects the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged for all of 2026, according to comments cited by Odaily. Christopher Hodge, Natixis chief U.S. economist and former chief economist at the New York Fed, said Fed Chair Warsh may be setting up a "credibility trap" with a forceful hawkish opening stance. Hodge said Warsh’s dislike of forward guidance and the dot plot makes sense in an uncertain environment, but it also points to a risk bias. If CPI readings in the coming months are distorted by short-term factors such as tariffs or energy shocks, Hodge said Warsh could be pushed into raising rates because of his earlier positioning. Natixis’ base case remains that the Fed will keep rates unchanged throughout 2026.
Natixis expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2026, according to Odaily.
Christopher Hodge, Natixis chief U.S. economist and former chief economist at the New York Fed, said Fed Chair Warsh’s forceful hawkish start could create a "credibility trap." Hodge said Warsh’s dislike of forward guidance and the dot plot is understandable in the current uncertain environment, but also reflects a tilt toward risk.
He added that if CPI data over the next few months is clouded by short-term noise tied to tariffs or energy shocks, Warsh could be forced to raise rates because of his earlier stance.
Natixis’ forecast is that the Fed will leave rates unchanged for all of 2026.
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