Nike (NYSE: NKE) shares extended their slide, closing at $39.09 on Aug. 17, the company’s lowest closing price since 2014. The stock is down nearly 39% this year and sits about 78% below its record high of $177.51 reached in November 2021. While CEO Elliott Hill continues to push a business turnaround, the technical picture suggests selling pressure has not fully run its course.
Shares hit a nearly 12-year low as trend indicators stay weak
Across key moving averages, Nike remains in a weak position. The stock is 5.3% below its 10-day moving average, 8.6% below its 50-day line, 10.9% below its 100-day average and more than 26% below its 200-day moving average. That points to weakness across short-, medium- and long-term time frames.
As of Aug. 17, Nike’s one-month relative strength index, or RSI, was 30.49. In technical analysis, an RSI reading below 30 is often treated as an oversold signal. Nike is close to that threshold, but it has not crossed it, leaving no clear sign yet that the selloff has fully stabilized.
Fiscal 2026 revenue was flat, with a decline on a constant-currency basis
The company’s fundamentals also show that the recovery remains under pressure. Nike reported fiscal 2026 full-year revenue of $46.4 billion, roughly unchanged from the prior year. On a constant-currency basis, revenue edged down 2%.
In the fourth quarter, revenue fell 4% on a constant-currency basis. Nike Direct revenue dropped 9%, while digital channel sales declined 12%. Slower demand in online and owned retail channels weighed on growth and left overall operations in a stagnant state.
Wholesale improved slightly, but inventory stayed at $7.5 billion
Some parts of the business did show signs of improvement. Fourth-quarter wholesale revenue rose 1% on a constant-currency basis. Management said sales progress in its performance sports lineup had improved.
Even so, inventory remained at $7.5 billion, in line with the same period a year earlier. The market is now focused on whether Nike’s newly launched product lines can lift inventory turnover and turn early wholesale gains into faster sell-through and broader operating improvement.
Investors are watching direct sales, digital demand and inventory reduction
According to ABMedia, Wall Street analysis cited in the report said an RSI move below 30 could draw short-term buying interest, but that alone would not fix weak revenue growth.
For upcoming earnings, investors are expected to focus on the recovery in direct sales, digital sales trends, inventory reduction progress and constant-currency revenue growth. A rebound in direct sales, better inventory turnover and steady wholesale growth are the main markers being watched for evidence that Nike’s turnaround strategy is gaining traction. If digital demand keeps weakening, the stock may struggle to find fundamental support in the near term.