Nine crypto companies said Thursday they have formed a Quantum Alliance to develop common security standards for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other blockchain networks as the industry prepares for future quantum-computing threats.
The alliance estimates that roughly 6.4 million BTC, or 30.2% of the supply, already have exposed public keys. In the group’s view, a future quantum computer could work backward from a wallet’s public key, recover the private key, and steal the funds. At the same time, the alliance said no quantum computer today has enough power to carry out that kind of attack, so those coins cannot currently be stolen in this way.
Members and timeline debate
Named members include Hacken, Charles Hoskinson-backed Midnight Foundation, quantum-resistant layer-1 blockchain Quantus, and Postquant Labs.
The industry remains split on when the threat could become real. Bryn Bennett, chief revenue officer at The Vault, said no one knows the exact date, but estimated timelines keep moving lower, making the risk something institutions can already plan for. She said the question for custodians is not whether the threat appears in 2028 or 2035, but whether they can complete a migration if it arrives sooner.
Richard Carback, chief technology officer at Postquant Labs, took a more aggressive view, saying a machine capable of breaking current cryptography by 2028 is a realistic scenario.
Recent research has lowered estimates for the computing power needed to attack Bitcoin and Ethereum, but no existing machine can break their cryptography today, and forecasts remain disputed.
Dispute over freezing vulnerable coins
Another fault line centers on whether vulnerable Bitcoin should be frozen.
Bennett said no single party is responsible for the issue, and custodians protect client assets rather than abandoned assets. In her view, freezing tokens is a governance decision for the Bitcoin network, and any freeze would trade quantum-risk mitigation for a precedent affecting property rights and neutrality.
Carback said he would rather move vulnerable tokens. He proposed putting them into a trust structure that would allow holders who can prove ownership to reclaim the funds.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao previously suggested that if quantum technology advances while Satoshi Nakamoto’s roughly 1.1 million BTC remain untouched, those holdings should be frozen. Bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp has also argued for restricting vulnerable coins to prevent theft. Critics, however, say freezing someone else’s Bitcoin runs against the promise that no one can confiscate Bitcoin.
Migration would require broad coordination
Making Bitcoin quantum resistant would require replacing the digital signatures used to authorize transactions. That would demand agreement across developers, miners, wallet providers, exchanges, and users.
New signature schemes could also take up more block space, which could raise fees or reduce the number of transactions Bitcoin can process.