A report from NYDIG, cited by Bitcoin Magazine, said Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% so far this year, making it the weakest performer across major asset classes and leaving it behind U.S. Treasuries, silver, and the Swiss franc. The report argued that the current slump is being driven by supply mechanics rather than broader risk sentiment, and said the timing and structure of the 2025-2026 drawdown are increasingly resembling prior correction years including 2014, 2018, and 2022. If the market were to fully track the 2022 pattern, NYDIG said the cycle low could form around $38,000 to $39,000. The report also noted that 2025 marked Bitcoin’s lowest-volatility year on record, leading some analysts to argue that the current pullback may be shallower than past bear markets. NYDIG added that Bitcoin’s rolling correlation with gold rose in the second quarter of 2026, with both assets coming under selling pressure as the “debasement trade” lost momentum. Separately, Bitwise said last week that while Bitcoin is in its deepest and longest slump since the previous bear market, fundamentals are in place for a sharp recovery. NYDIG also described the CLARITY Act as the most important forward-looking catalyst for the digital asset industry.
According to Bitcoin Magazine, an NYDIG report said Bitcoin is down nearly 30% year to date, ranking at the bottom among asset classes and trailing U.S. Treasuries, silver, and the Swiss franc.
The report said the current weakness is tied to supply mechanics rather than risk sentiment. NYDIG said the timing and structure of Bitcoin’s 2025-2026 drawdown are increasingly lining up with correction years such as 2014, 2018, and 2022. If the market were to fully mirror the 2022 pattern, the cycle low could land near $38,000 to $39,000.
At the same time, the report said Bitcoin went through its lowest-volatility year on record in 2025. Some analysts therefore believe this year’s pullback may end up being shallower than earlier bear markets.
NYDIG also said Bitcoin’s rolling correlation with gold rose in the second quarter of 2026, and both assets were sold off as the “debasement trade” lost momentum. Last week, Bitwise said that although Bitcoin is in its deepest and longest slump since the last bear market, its fundamentals have already laid the groundwork for a rapid recovery.
On the policy side, NYDIG called the CLARITY Act “the most important forward-looking catalyst for the digital asset industry.”
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