Odaily’s editorial tea chat is presented as an informal internal column. It gathers editors’ immediate reactions to industry news, data, hot events and smaller details, while also recording investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being tested. The column also includes observations from conversations with industry practitioners and materials that have helped the team improve its understanding, whether those materials come from inside or outside the newsroom. The premise is clearly stated: these are real investment and observation experiences from Odaily editorial members, not business advertising and not investment advice. The goal is to broaden perspectives and add information sources rather than create consensus.
BTC Dip-Buying, Prediction Markets and the HYPE Debate
One editor introduced the current state with the phrase “still bad, still learning.” In recent trading, this editor said activity had become slightly more frequent than in the previous period. On the crypto side, the editor made small dip-buying purchases during the decline a few days earlier, mainly in BTC, but the overall entry area was high, around 6.2 to 6.6, so there was basically no profit. On the U.S. equity side, the editor made a small add-on purchase of HOOD, with the reasoning already explained in an earlier article. The editor also spent time in prediction markets around the World Cup, combining small, high-frequency copy trading with larger, lower-frequency active orders. A new tool is being tested, and the editor said the early experience felt good, with a recommendation to come after a few more days of use.
The same editor also discussed HYPE. Although HYPE has performed well recently, the editor’s view has become increasingly skeptical of the relationship between a higher HYPE price and Hyperliquid’s broader ecosystem. The core argument was that Hyperliquid’s most imaginative earlier narrative centered on building a multi-asset trading ecosystem around HIP-3. In the current HIP-3 landscape, however, trade.xyz is dominant, while Felix and Ventuals have closed one after another. Because building a custom market on HIP-3 requires staking 500,000 HYPE, the requirement is worth more than 35 million dollars at the current price. In the editor’s framing, an overly expensive HYPE token has become a barrier to expanding the HIP-3 blueprint. What the market once imagined was “Hyperliquid plus countless custom markets.” What exists now looks closer to “Hyperliquid plus trade.xyz.” If the upper-layer market hardens into a structure with only trade.xyz, then both user reach and narrative imagination fall short of the earlier expectations described in the discussion.
Looking Back at Missed Trades
Another editor opened with the self-description that they had “just sold Hynix too early,” then turned the discussion toward trading mentality. The main point was that markets never lack opportunities, but calm capital and a steady mindset are always scarce. Capital markets keep moving, and missing one trade does not end the market cycle. A short-term explosive rally missed today, a hot sector missed today, or a bottoming move missed today is only one small part of a far larger set of opportunities. The editor argued that investing does not require capturing every move. It is enough to take opportunities that are within one’s own knowledge boundary and where risk is controllable. Becoming fixated on a trade that has already passed and being dragged along by anxiety is itself described as one of the biggest traps in investing.
That editor also reflected on past trading history and described a recurring pattern: when looking back after the fact, the market appears full of high-quality opportunities. Reviewing last year, last month or even a few weeks ago, it can seem obvious which assets were low, which sectors were about to break out and which trends deserved heavy positioning. But this backward-looking clarity can become a form of “rearview mirror thinking,” where the market is easy to understand after the event and confusing in real time. The editor’s conclusion was that history contained countless opportunities, and the present does as well. Past opportunities did not disappear; rather, at the time, limited understanding and unstable mentality made them hard to recognize or difficult to hold. By the same logic, today’s market still contains opportunities across different levels and risk profiles.
SpaceX, Anysphere and the Question of Stock-Funded M&A
The tea chat also covered SpaceX’s June 16 announcement that it had acquired Anysphere, the parent company of the AI programming tool Cursor, for 60 billion dollars. The editor discussing the deal described it as an exchange of needs. Elon Musk needs Cursor’s developer data to train his AI model Grok, while Anysphere needs the large computing power behind SpaceX to train its own AI model Composer and compete with the model of its former partner Anthropic. Beyond the strategic meaning for both sides, the editor highlighted a detail that is easy to miss: the acquisition’s effect on SpaceX’s share price, because the transaction was paid entirely with SpaceX Class A common stock rather than cash.
According to the SEC filing cited in the discussion, SpaceX will conduct the merger through its wholly owned subsidiary X67 Inc. X67 Inc. will merge into Anysphere, and Cursor, as the surviving entity, will become a wholly owned subsidiary of SpaceX. At closing, all common and preferred shares of Anysphere will be converted into SpaceX Class A common stock. The exchange ratio will be calculated using the volume-weighted average price over the seven consecutive trading days before closing. The editor’s interpretation was that Musk gained a larger advantage in this deal: by paying with SpaceX stock, he can use the company’s very high current valuation to complete the acquisition while giving up a relatively smaller amount of equity, making the real cost much lower.
The timing of the closing was then linked to SPCX trading. The merger agreement was signed on June 16, only three trading days after SpaceX’s listing, so the earliest equity delivery would occur the following week. The editor asked whether the “Musk interest group” would actively stabilize SpaceX’s trading volume and valuation at a high level in order to complete the acquisition with less equity. The editor also stated clearly that there is no strong causal relationship between these factors, and presented the point only as an analytical guess that could affect the SPCX share price.
On SPCX’s current price, the same editor said it is mainly being pushed up by market sentiment. Based on Vanda Track data from recent days, SpaceX remains the stock most sought after by retail capital and has topped the U.S. single-stock retail net inflow ranking for multiple consecutive days. The editor also wrote that retail enthusiasm will eventually fade, and that “faith” is not without a price. At that stage, institutions would need to take the handoff and become the main force stabilizing SPCX’s price.
BTC, Japanese and Korean Equities, AI IPOs and HYPE Positioning
Another member provided a compact set of market notes. BTC had rebounded slightly, the U.S.-Iran situation had eased, and the member remained bullish for the moment, while saying they would consider testing a short position at 6w8 to 6w9. SpaceX’s IPO had ended, but the stock did not hold a 2.2 trillion dollar market value at the close on the day, leaving the member with a loss of 10 U. Even so, the member said they still looked for a move above 250 after inclusion in the Nasdaq in July. Japanese and Korean stock markets continued to rise, with the strong-get-stronger trend still clear. The next landmark event, in that member’s view, would be a Federal Reserve rate hike or an Anthropic/OpenAI IPO.
The same member said they personally believed Anthropic had the chance to challenge SpaceX as another historically large IPO, with valuation even rising to the 2 to 3 trillion dollar range. A post shared by group members over the past two days also left an impression: the view was that the AI industry, like the real estate industry, is a heavy-asset industry. The member said this argument made sense, and that positioning in “shovel sellers” as a form of defensive investment was a good line of thought.
The final editor reviewed a specific HYPE trade. Last week, when HYPE fell to around 56 dollars, the editor bought and went long, then gradually sold after the price moved above 70 dollars. The sale was not presented as a loss of confidence. The editor simply believed a major short-term breakout would be hard. Over the longer term, the editor described 50 to 60 dollars as an important support range and planned to continue buying there. Two reasons were given. The first was that Hyperliquid has captured the largest dividend from the current wave of traditional assets moving onto on-chain trading. Fees have continued to surge, and HYPE buybacks have increased sharply, with average monthly buybacks over the past six months exceeding 60 million dollars. The editor added that 97% to 99% of Hyperliquid platform trading fee revenue is used directly to buy back HYPE in the open market. In that editor’s view, no exchange is currently doing this in the same way, and this is the largest growth flywheel.
The second reason concerned the HYPE spot ETF. After listing, it recorded cumulative net inflows of 180 million dollars and average daily net inflows of 7.5 million dollars. The editor described traditional capital’s preference for HYPE as clearly visible and said this treatment had not appeared after other crypto ETFs launched. The chat closed with a discussion of ETH. The editor observed a strange market split: crypto-native investors are deeply disappointed with ETH because price performance over the past few years has been weak and opportunity cost has been lost. Traditional investors, especially Wall Street figures represented by Tom Lee, have instead continued to add ETH with real capital and see it as an undervalued “Amazon.” The two sides cannot convince each other, so the editor said time will decide. The editor’s personal view was that ETH has fallen to a “cabbage price,” and that entering now costs less than Bitmine’s entry.