Odaily’s editorial tea talk for June 17 is presented as an informal internal column. The format allows members of the editorial team to record immediate reactions to industry news, data, hot events and overlooked details; to lay out investment thoughts and opportunity hypotheses that are still being tested; to share observations obtained through conversations with industry participants; and to circulate materials that have genuinely improved the team’s understanding, whether those materials came from inside or outside Odaily.
The column states that its content is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editors. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising and does not constitute investment advice. Its stated purpose is to broaden perspectives and add sources of information, rather than create consensus. Readers are also invited to join Odaily’s community through its Telegram group and official X account for discussion, questioning and casual conversation.
More frequent trading: BTC, HOOD and World Cup prediction markets
One editor introduced the section with a self-deprecating line, saying they are still learning. Their recent trading activity has become somewhat more frequent than before. On the crypto side, they bought a small amount during the recent decline, mainly BTC, but the entry range was relatively high at 6.2 to 6.6, so there was basically little profit. In U.S. equities, they added a small position in HOOD, with the reasoning already explained in an article published in the previous two days.
The same editor also said they have been playing World Cup-related prediction markets. Their current setup includes small, high-frequency copy trading while testing a new tool that, for now, feels good enough to keep trying for a few more days before recommending. Alongside that, they are also placing larger, lower-frequency active orders.
On HYPE, the editor noted that the token has performed well recently, but they increasingly feel that the more expensive HYPE becomes, the less favorable it is for Hyperliquid. The reason given is that Hyperliquid’s most imaginative narrative had previously centered on building a multi-asset trading ecosystem around HIP-3. At present, however, trade.xyz dominates among HIP-3 projects, while Felix and Ventuals have shut down one after another.
In this view, the high HYPE price has become an obstacle to the expansion of the HIP-3 blueprint. Building a customized market based on HIP-3 requires staking 500,000 HYPE, which exceeds 35 million U.S. dollars at the current price. The previous market imagination was Hyperliquid plus countless custom markets; the current situation looks more like Hyperliquid plus trade.xyz. If the upper-layer market solidifies around only trade.xyz, its ability to reach users and its narrative scope would not fully match prior market expectations.
Missing SK Hynix and the problem of hindsight
Another editor opened with the line that they had just sold SK Hynix too early. The main point of this section was not a specific trade, but the mindset behind trading. The editor wrote that markets never lack opportunities, but calm capital and a calm mindset are always scarce. Capital markets are continuously liquid, and the market does not end because one opportunity has been missed.
In that editor’s view, the short-term surging asset missed today, the hot sector that was not caught, or the bottoming market that was overlooked are all only small pieces among countless opportunities. Markets keep operating day after day; old and new themes rotate, and rising and falling cycles repeat. If one train is missed, another opportunity will arrive. Investing does not require capturing every market move. It only requires grasping opportunities that fall within one’s own understanding and controllable risk range.
The editor added that an interesting pattern appears when reviewing past trading history. Looking back from the perspective of the present, one can easily see seemingly high-quality opportunities everywhere. Looking back at last year, last month, or even just a few weeks ago, it becomes clear which assets were at low levels, which sectors were about to break out, and which trades would have deserved a heavy position. The past can appear full of easy profits.
That, however, is the trap of hindsight. People can often see the market clearly after the fact while feeling lost in the present. The editor’s conclusion is that history contained countless opportunities, and the present also never lacks opportunities. Past opportunities did not disappear; at the time, the investor simply lacked the knowledge or mindset to identify and take them. By the same logic, the current market still contains investment opportunities of different levels and different risk profiles.
SpaceX, Anysphere, Cursor and the debate around SPCX
The column also discussed SpaceX’s June 16 announcement that it had acquired Anysphere, the parent company of the AI programming tool Cursor, for 60 billion U.S. dollars. The sharing editor described the acquisition as a case in which both sides get what they need. Elon Musk needs Cursor’s developer data to train his AI model Grok, while Anysphere needs the large computing power behind SpaceX to train its own AI model Composer and compete with the model of its former partner Anthropic.
Beyond the strategic meaning for both sides, the editor pointed to a detail that is easily overlooked: the impact on SpaceX’s share price. In this acquisition, Musk effectively did not spend cash, because the entire consideration for Cursor is paid in SpaceX Class A common shares. According to SEC filings, SpaceX will carry out the merger with Anysphere through its wholly owned subsidiary X67 Inc. X67 Inc. will merge into Anysphere, and Cursor, as the surviving entity, will become a wholly owned subsidiary of SpaceX.
When the merger is completed, all common and preferred shares of Anysphere will be converted into SpaceX Class A common shares. The exchange ratio will be calculated based on the volume-weighted average price over the seven consecutive trading days before closing. The editor argued that Musk receives a larger advantage in this arrangement. Paying with SpaceX shares allows him to use the company’s current high valuation and complete the acquisition by giving up a relatively smaller amount of equity, so the actual cost is much lower, with a large part of the consideration described by the editor as bubble-like value.
The key timing detail is that, as of June 16, when the two sides signed the merger agreement, only three trading days had passed since SpaceX’s listing. Therefore, the earliest equity closing would take place the following week. The editor raised an analytical speculation related to SPCX’s share price: in order to complete the acquisition at a cheaper level and with less equity, would the group aligned with Musk actively stabilize SpaceX’s trading volume and valuation at high levels?
The editor also clarified that there is no strong causal relationship between these elements, and that the idea is only a speculative analysis of a factor affecting SPCX’s price. SPCX’s current price is mainly being pushed higher by market sentiment. According to recent data from Vanda Track, SpaceX remains the stock most sought after by retail capital and has topped the U.S. single-stock retail net inflow ranking for multiple consecutive days. But retail enthusiasm can fade, and faith is not without a price. At that time, institutions would need to take the baton and become the main force stabilizing SPCX’s price.
BTC, SpaceX IPO, Asian equities, HYPE support and ETH disagreements
Another editor shared several shorter trading notes. BTC has rebounded slightly, and the U.S.-Iran situation has eased. The editor remains bullish for now and would consider trying a short position around 6w8 to 6w9. On SpaceX, the IPO has ended, but the closing price that day did not hold a 2.2 trillion U.S. dollar market capitalization, resulting in a loss of 10 U. The editor still wrote that after inclusion in the Nasdaq in July, the price is seen above 250.
The same editor said Japanese and Korean stock markets are still pushing higher, and the trend of strong assets remaining strong is still evident. The next landmark event, in their framing, would be a Federal Reserve rate hike or an Anthropic/OpenAI IPO. The editor personally believes Anthropic has a chance to challenge for another largest IPO in history after SpaceX, with its valuation even rising to the 2 trillion to 3 trillion U.S. dollar range. They also referred to a post shared by a group member saying that the AI industry, like real estate, is a heavy-asset industry, and said this view made sense. On that basis, deploying capital into shovel-selling assets as a defensive investment approach was described as a good line of thinking.
The final sharing section returned to HYPE. In terms of operations, the editor bought HYPE for a long position when it fell to around 56 dollars last week, then gradually sold after it moved above 70 dollars. The sale was not because they had turned negative on the asset, but because they believed a major short-term breakout would be difficult. Over the longer term, they see 50 to 60 dollars as an important support range and plan to continue buying around that level.
The editor gave two reasons. First, in the wave of traditional assets moving on-chain for trading, Hyperliquid has essentially captured the largest benefit. Fees have continued to rise, HYPE buybacks have increased sharply, and the average monthly buyback over the past half year has exceeded 60 million U.S. dollars. The editor also noted that 97% to 99% of Hyperliquid’s trading fee revenue is used directly to buy back HYPE in the open market, and said no other exchange currently appears to be doing this, making it the biggest growth flywheel.
The second reason is HYPE’s spot ETF. After listing, it has recorded cumulative net inflows of 180 million U.S. dollars, with average daily net inflows of 7.5 million U.S. dollars. The editor viewed the data as evidence of traditional capital’s preference for HYPE, and described this as treatment other crypto ETFs did not receive after listing.
On ETH, the editor said the market is in a strange state. Pure crypto investors are deeply disappointed in ETH because its price performance over the past few years has been weak, leading to a loss of opportunity cost. Traditional investors, especially Wall Street figures represented by Tom Lee, are instead continuing to add ETH with real capital and regard it as an undervalued Amazon. The two sides cannot convince each other, so time will decide. The editor’s personal view is that ETH has fallen to a very cheap level, and that buying now costs less than Bitmine’s entry price.