Odaily’s editors’ tea talk is presented as an internal, informal column rather than a formal investment note. In this edition, the editorial team records immediate reactions to industry news, data points, topical events and small details around them. The column also includes investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being tested, observations gathered through conversations with industry participants, and materials from inside or outside the team that genuinely changed the editors’ understanding. The column states clearly that it does not accept commercial advertising and does not constitute investment advice. Its purpose is to broaden perspectives and add information sources, not to manufacture consensus.
Recent activity across crypto, U.S. stocks and prediction markets
One editor described their current status as “still bad, still learning,” and said their trading frequency has been slightly higher than in the previous period. On the crypto side, the editor bought a small amount during the recent decline, mainly BTC. However, the entry levels were generally high, in the 6.2 to 6.6 range, so there has been little profit. In U.S. equities, the editor added a small position in HOOD, with the reasoning already explained in an earlier article. The editor also said they have been playing World Cup-related markets on prediction platforms, while combining small, high-frequency copy trades with larger, lower-frequency discretionary orders. The high-frequency copy-trading side is being tested through a new tool that has felt good so far, but the editor plans to try it for a few more days before recommending it.
The same editor also discussed HYPE, which has performed well recently, but raised a concern that runs against the immediate price strength: the more expensive HYPE becomes, the less favorable it is for Hyperliquid. The reason given is that Hyperliquid’s most imaginative previous narrative was built around HIP-3 and the creation of a multi-asset trading ecosystem. At present, however, trade.xyz dominates among HIP-3 projects, while Felix and Ventuals have shut down one after another. The high HYPE price has become an obstacle to expanding the HIP-3 blueprint because building a custom market on HIP-3 requires staking 500,000 HYPE, which is worth more than $35 million at current prices. The earlier market vision was “Hyperliquid plus countless custom markets,” while the current situation is closer to “Hyperliquid plus trade.xyz.” If the upper-layer market solidifies around only trade.xyz, the editor argued that its user reach and narrative imagination both fall short of the market’s earlier expectations.
Missed trades, review bias and the need for a calm mindset
Another editor opened with the line “just sold Hynix too early” and used it to discuss the mindset after missing gains. The view was that markets never lack opportunities, but calm capital and a calm mentality are always scarce. Capital markets are continuously moving, and a market does not end simply because an investor missed one opportunity. A short-term soaring asset, a hot sector, or a bottoming move missed today is only one small part of the market’s many opportunities. Markets keep operating day after day, with old and new themes rotating and cycles of rises and falls continuing. Missing one vehicle does not mean all opportunities are gone. Investment does not require catching every move; it requires taking opportunities that fall within one’s own circle of understanding and risk control. Obsessing over a lost opportunity and being pulled around by anxiety is itself a major trap in investing.
The editor also described an interesting phenomenon found while reviewing past trades. Looking backward, it is easy to see good opportunities everywhere. When reviewing last year, last month, or even just a few weeks ago, it becomes clear which assets were at low levels, which sectors were about to break out, and which moves were worth sizing up. In hindsight, profitable opportunities appear to have been available everywhere. But this “rearview mirror thinking” leaves people seeing the market clearly only after the fact while still feeling confused in the present. The editor’s conclusion was that history contained countless opportunities, and the present also never lacks opportunities. Past opportunities did not disappear; at the time, the participants simply lacked enough understanding, had an unstable mindset, failed to identify them, or did not dare to act. By the same logic, today’s market still contains opportunities across different levels and different risk categories.
SpaceX’s Anysphere acquisition and a hypothesis around SPCX
The tea talk also covered SpaceX’s June 16 announcement that it would acquire Anysphere, the parent company of AI coding tool Cursor, for $60 billion. The contributor framed the deal as one in which each side gets what it needs. Elon Musk needs Cursor’s developer data to train his AI model Grok, while Anysphere needs the large amount of computing power behind SpaceX to train its own AI model, Composer, and compete with the model from its former partner Anthropic. Beyond the strategic value for both sides, the contributor focused on a detail that can be easy to overlook: the effect on SpaceX’s stock price. Musk did not pay cash, because the entire acquisition consideration is being paid in SpaceX Class A common stock.
According to the SEC filing described in the source, SpaceX is carrying out the merger with Anysphere through its wholly owned subsidiary X67 Inc. X67 Inc. will merge into Anysphere, and Cursor, as the surviving entity, will become a wholly owned subsidiary of SpaceX. At the completion of the merger, all of Anysphere’s common and preferred shares will be converted into SpaceX Class A common shares. The exchange ratio will be calculated based on the volume-weighted average price over the seven consecutive trading days before closing. The contributor argued that paying with SpaceX shares lets Musk make use of the company’s very high valuation at this stage and complete the acquisition by giving up a relatively small amount of equity, so the real cost is much lower than a cash deal.
The contributor then raised an analytical hypothesis. As of June 16, when the two sides signed the merger agreement, SpaceX had been listed for only three trading days, so the earliest equity closing between the two sides would take place the following week. In order to complete the acquisition more cheaply and with less equity dilution, the question raised was whether “Musk’s interest group” would actively stabilize SpaceX’s trading volume and market value at a high level. The contributor also stressed that there is no strong causal relationship between the two, and that this is only an analytical guess about one factor affecting SPCX’s stock price. The current SPCX price was described as being mainly pushed up by market sentiment. According to Vanda Track data from recent days, SpaceX remains the most favored stock among retail capital and has topped the U.S. single-stock retail net inflow ranking for several consecutive days. The contributor added that retail enthusiasm will eventually fade, and when that happens, institutions will need to take over as the main force stabilizing SPCX’s price.
BTC, Japan-Korea equities, HYPE support and the ETH divide
Another editor provided several short trading observations. BTC has rebounded slightly, the U.S.-Iran situation has eased, and the editor remains bullish for now, while considering a test short in the 6w8 to 6w9 area. SpaceX’s IPO has ended, but the stock did not hold a $2.2 trillion valuation at the close that day, resulting in a loss of 10 U for the editor; nevertheless, the editor still sees the stock above 250 after its Nasdaq inclusion in July. The editor also said Japanese and South Korean stock markets continue to move higher, and the “strong getting stronger” trend remains clear. The next landmark event, in this view, would be either a Federal Reserve rate hike or an Anthropic/OpenAI IPO. The editor personally believes Anthropic has a chance to challenge SpaceX as another largest IPO in history, with its market value even moving to the $2 trillion to $3 trillion range. The editor also mentioned a post shared in the group saying that the AI industry, like the real estate industry, is a heavy-asset industry, and felt that the argument made sense. On that basis, positioning in “picks and shovels” as a defensive investment approach was described as a reasonable line of thinking.
The final contributor discussed HYPE and ETH positioning. On HYPE, the editor bought the asset for a long trade when it fell to around $56 last week, then gradually sold after it moved above $70. The sale was not because of a negative long-term view, but because the editor believed a large short-term breakout would be difficult. Over the longer term, the $50 to $60 area is seen as an important support range, and the editor plans to continue buying around that level. Two reasons were given. First, in the current wave of traditional assets moving on-chain for trading, Hyperliquid has basically captured the largest benefit. Fees have continued to surge, HYPE buybacks have increased sharply, and average monthly buybacks over the past half year have exceeded $60 million. The editor also noted that 97% to 99% of Hyperliquid platform trading-fee revenue is directly used to buy back HYPE in the open market, which was described as the largest growth flywheel. Second, after the HYPE spot ETF listing, cumulative net inflows reached $180 million, with average daily net inflows of $7.5 million. The editor said this shows clear preference for HYPE from traditional capital, treatment that other crypto ETFs have not received after listing.
On ETH, the editor described the current market as strange. Pure crypto investors are deeply disappointed in ETH because its price performance over the past few years has been weak and has caused opportunity-cost losses. Traditional investors, especially Wall Street figures represented by Tom Lee, are instead continuing to add real money to ETH and view it as an undervalued “Amazon.” The two sides cannot persuade each other, so the editor said time will have to decide. In the editor’s own view, ETH has fallen to a “bargain” level, and the current entry cost is lower than Bitmine’s.