Odaily’s editorial “Tea Talk” is an informal internal column. The purpose of the column is to share editors’ immediate reactions to industry news, data, hot events and overlooked details; to record investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being tested; to relay observations gathered from conversations with industry participants; and to collect materials, whether internal or external, that have genuinely improved the team’s understanding. The column is based on the real investment experiences and observations of Odaily editors, accepts no commercial advertising in any form, and does not constitute investment advice. Its stated purpose is to broaden perspectives and add sources of information rather than manufacture consensus.
Recent trading: BTC dip buying, HOOD additions and prediction markets
One editor described their current state as “still weak, still learning,” and said their trading frequency has been slightly higher than in the previous period. On the crypto side, they bought a small amount during the recent decline, mainly BTC, but the entry area was generally high, around 6.2-6.6, so there was basically no profit. In U.S. stocks, they added a small position in HOOD, noting that the logic had already been discussed in an earlier article. They also participated in World Cup-related prediction markets, combining small, high-frequency copy trades with larger, low-frequency active orders. The high-frequency copy-trading activity is being tested with a new tool, which so far feels “not bad,” and the editor said they would try it for a few more days before recommending it.
The same editor also discussed HYPE and Hyperliquid. Their view is that HYPE has performed well recently, but the higher HYPE becomes, the less favorable it is for Hyperliquid. The reasoning is centered on HIP-3. Previously, Hyperliquid’s most imaginative narrative was the creation of a multi-asset trading ecosystem built around HIP-3. At present, however, trade.xyz is dominant among HIP-3 projects, while Felix and Ventuals have shut down one after another. The high price of HYPE has effectively become an obstacle to the expansion of the HIP-3 blueprint, because building a custom market on HIP-3 requires staking 500,000 HYPE, which is worth more than $35 million at current prices. Earlier market imagination was “Hyperliquid plus countless custom markets.” The current picture is closer to “Hyperliquid plus trade.xyz.” If the upper-layer market becomes fixed around only trade.xyz, the editor believes both user reach and future imagination would fall short of what the market had previously expected.
After selling SK Hynix too early: calm capital and rear-view thinking
Another editor opened with the line that they had “just sold SK Hynix too early,” and then expanded the point into a broader reflection on opportunity and mentality. In their view, markets never lack opportunities, but calm capital and a calm mindset are always scarce. Capital markets are permanently in motion; a missed opportunity does not bring the market to an end. A missed short-term surge, a missed hot sector or a missed bottoming move is only one small item among countless opportunities. Investors do not need to catch every move. They only need to capture opportunities that fall within their own scope of understanding and can be managed within acceptable risk. Being trapped by a past opportunity and pulled by anxiety is, in their words, one of the biggest traps in investing. Instead of exhausting oneself over a missed move, the editor argues for building knowledge, improving judgment and waiting for the next moment that truly fits.
After reviewing past trading history, the editor said they noticed an interesting pattern: when looking backward, it becomes very easy to see quality opportunities everywhere. Looking back at last year, last month or even just a few weeks ago, one can clearly identify which assets were at low levels, which sectors were about to break out and which moves deserved heavier positions. Everything appears obvious from the perspective of hindsight. But this is also the problem of “rear-view mirror thinking”: investors often see the market clearly after the fact while feeling confused in the present. The editor’s conclusion is that history contained countless opportunities, and the present never lacks them either. Past opportunities did not disappear; at the time, investors simply lacked the cognition or the mental stability to recognize and act on them. In the same way, today’s market still contains investment opportunities of different levels and risk profiles.
SpaceX, Anysphere and the SPCX price discussion
The discussion then turned to SpaceX. On June 16, SpaceX announced a $60 billion acquisition of Anysphere, the parent company of the AI coding tool Cursor. One editor framed the deal as a transaction in which both sides get what they need. Elon Musk needs Cursor’s developer data to train his AI model Grok, while Anysphere needs the huge computing power behind SpaceX to train its own AI model Composer and compete against the model of its former partner Anthropic. Beyond the strategic meaning for both companies, the editor highlighted one detail that can easily be overlooked: the impact on SpaceX’s stock price, because Musk did not spend cash in the transaction. The funding for the Cursor acquisition is entirely paid in SpaceX Class A common stock.
According to SEC filings cited in the discussion, SpaceX is carrying out the merger with Anysphere through its wholly owned subsidiary X67 Inc. X67 Inc. will merge into Anysphere, and Cursor will survive as a wholly owned subsidiary of SpaceX. When the merger is completed, all common shares and preferred shares of Anysphere will be converted into SpaceX Class A common stock. The exchange ratio is calculated based on the volume-weighted average price over the seven consecutive trading days before closing. The editor argued that paying with SpaceX shares gives Musk a larger advantage, because it lets him use the company’s extremely high current market valuation to complete the acquisition by giving up a relatively small amount of equity. In the editor’s words, the real cost is much lower, and much of what is being paid is “bubble.”
The editor then raised the main trading-related question. As of June 16, when the merger agreement was signed, only three trading days had passed since SpaceX went public. That means the earliest equity delivery between the two sides would occur next week. In order to complete the acquisition more cheaply and with fewer shares, the editor asked whether the “Musk interest group” would actively stabilize SpaceX’s trading volume and valuation at a high level. The editor also made clear that there is no strong causal relationship between the two points, and described this only as an analytical guess about a factor affecting SPCX’s price. At present, SPCX’s price is mainly being pushed up by market sentiment. According to Vanda Track data over the past few days, SpaceX remains the stock most favored by retail money and has topped the U.S. single-stock retail net inflow rankings for multiple consecutive days. The editor added that retail enthusiasm will fade, and “belief” is not without a price. At that stage, institutions would need to take the baton and become the main force supporting SPCX’s price.
BTC, AI IPO themes, HYPE trading and the ETH split
Another section of the tea talk covered BTC, the SpaceX IPO, Japan and Korea equities, and AI IPO narratives. One editor said BTC had rebounded slightly, while the U.S.-Iran situation had eased. They remained bullish for the moment and would consider testing a short position around 6w8-6w9. The SpaceX IPO has ended, but the stock did not hold a $2.2 trillion market capitalization at the close that day, leading the editor to lose 10 U. Even so, they said they were looking at a level above 250 after inclusion in the Nasdaq in July. Japan and Korea stock markets are still moving higher, and the trend of strong assets getting stronger remains clear. The next symbolic event, in this editor’s view, is either a Federal Reserve rate hike or an Anthropic/OpenAI IPO. They personally believe Anthropic has a chance to challenge SpaceX as another largest IPO in history, with a valuation even moving into the $2 trillion to $3 trillion range. After seeing a post shared by group members that described the AI industry as a heavy-asset industry similar to real estate, the editor said the argument made sense, and that investing defensively in “selling shovels” is a good line of thought.
The final editor reviewed a recent HYPE trade. Last week, when HYPE fell to around $56, they added a long position and then gradually sold after the price moved above $70. The sale did not mean they were no longer positive on the asset. Rather, they believed it would be difficult for HYPE to achieve a major short-term breakout. Over the longer term, they see $50 to $60 as an important support range and plan to keep buying around that area. The first reason is that Hyperliquid has captured the largest benefit from the recent wave of traditional assets moving to on-chain trading. Fees have continued to rise, HYPE buybacks have increased sharply, and the average monthly buyback over the past half year has exceeded $60 million. The editor stressed that 97% to 99% of Hyperliquid’s trading-fee revenue is used directly to buy back HYPE in the open market, and said no other exchange is currently doing this in the same way. In their view, this is the largest growth flywheel. The second reason is the HYPE spot ETF. Since its listing, cumulative net inflows have reached $180 million, with average daily net inflows of $7.5 million. The editor said traditional capital’s preference for HYPE is clear, and that this treatment has not appeared after the listing of other crypto ETFs.
On ETH, the editor described a strange split in the current market. Pure crypto investors are deeply disappointed with ETH because its price performance over the past few years has been weak, resulting in lost opportunity costs. Traditional investors, especially Wall Street figures represented by Tom Lee, have instead continued to add real capital to ETH and regard it as an undervalued “Amazon.” Neither side can convince the other, so the editor said the answer should be left to time. Their personal view is that ETH has now fallen to a “cabbage price,” and that the current entry cost is lower than Bitmine’s.