Odaily’s editors’ roundtable is positioned as an informal internal column rather than a formal research note. In this edition, the editorial team shared immediate views on industry news, data, hot events and overlooked details, while also recording investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being tested. The column also includes observations from conversations with industry practitioners and materials that have improved the editors’ understanding, whether those materials came from inside or outside the team. Odaily states that the content is based on real investment and observation experiences of its editors, does not accept any form of commercial advertising, and does not constitute investment advice. Its stated purpose is to broaden perspectives and add sources of information, rather than manufacture consensus.
More Active Trading and the Tension Around HYPE
One contributor, introduced with the self-description of still learning, said their recent trading frequency has been higher than in the previous period. On the crypto side, they made small purchases during the recent decline, mainly in BTC, but admitted that the entry area was relatively high, around 6.2 to 6.6, so there was basically no profit. In U.S. equities, the contributor made a small additional purchase of HOOD, noting that the rationale had already been discussed in an earlier article. They also participated in World Cup-related prediction markets, combining small, high-frequency copy trading while testing a new tool with larger, lower-frequency active orders. The tool was described as temporarily feeling good, but the contributor said they would test it for a few more days before recommending it.
The same contributor also discussed HYPE. While acknowledging that HYPE has performed well recently, they increasingly believe that the more expensive HYPE becomes, the more disadvantageous it is for Hyperliquid. The reason given is that Hyperliquid’s most imaginative earlier narrative was built around HIP-3 and the creation of a multi-asset trading ecosystem. At present, however, trade.xyz has become dominant among HIP-3 projects, while Felix and Ventuals have shut down one after another. The contributor argued that a high HYPE price has effectively become an obstacle to the expansion of the HIP-3 blueprint, because creating custom markets based on HIP-3 requires staking 500,000 HYPE, which is worth more than $35 million at current prices. The previous market imagination was Hyperliquid plus countless custom markets, but the current situation is closer to Hyperliquid plus trade.xyz. If the upper-layer market solidifies into a structure with trade.xyz as the only major player, the contributor said its user reach and room for future imagination would not match what the market previously expected.
Calm Capital, Missed Trades and Hindsight
Another contributor opened with the note that they had just sold SK Hynix too early, and then focused on trading mentality. Their main point was that the market never lacks opportunities, but calm capital and a stable mindset are always scarce. Capital markets continue to flow, and a trend does not end simply because someone missed one opportunity. A short-term surging asset, a popular sector, or a bottoming move that was missed today is only one small part of the market’s many opportunities. The contributor wrote that investing does not require catching every move; it requires taking opportunities that fall within one’s own scope of understanding and that carry controllable risk. Becoming fixated on an opportunity that has already passed and being driven by anxiety is itself one of the biggest traps in investing.
The contributor also described a recurring phenomenon discovered through reviewing past trades. From the perspective of hindsight, it is very easy to see high-quality opportunities everywhere. Looking back at last year, last month, or even just a few weeks ago, it seems clear which assets were at low levels, which sectors were about to break out, and which moves deserved heavy positioning. But this hindsight mindset leaves people able to understand the market after the fact while remaining confused in real time. The contributor’s conclusion was that history contained countless opportunities, and the present also never lacks opportunities. Past opportunities did not disappear; at the time, people simply lacked sufficient understanding, were too impatient, or did not dare to act.
SpaceX’s Cursor Acquisition and the SPCX Question
The discussion then turned to SpaceX and Cursor. On June 16, SpaceX announced a $60 billion acquisition of Anysphere, the parent company of AI programming tool Cursor. One contributor described the deal as an exchange of needs. Musk needs Cursor’s developer data to train his AI model Grok, while Anysphere needs the massive computing resources behind SpaceX to train its own AI model Composer and compete with models from its former partner Anthropic. Beyond the strategic significance for both sides, the contributor pointed to a detail that is easy to overlook: the deal’s influence on the SpaceX share price.
According to the contributor, Musk did not spend cash on the transaction, because the acquisition consideration for Cursor is being paid entirely with SpaceX Class A common stock. SEC filings show that SpaceX will carry out the merger through its wholly owned subsidiary X67 Inc. and Anysphere. X67 Inc. will merge into Anysphere, while Cursor will survive as a wholly owned subsidiary of SpaceX. When the merger is completed, all common and preferred shares of Anysphere will be converted into SpaceX Class A common stock. The exchange ratio will be calculated based on the volume-weighted average price over the seven consecutive trading days before closing.
In the contributor’s view, paying with SpaceX stock gives Musk an advantage, because it allows him to use the company’s extremely high current market valuation to complete the acquisition with a relatively small equity give-up, lowering the real cost of the deal. Since the merger agreement was signed on June 16, only three trading days after SpaceX went public, the earliest equity delivery would take place the following week. The contributor therefore raised a question: in order to complete the acquisition more cheaply and with less equity, would a Musk-aligned interest group actively stabilize SpaceX trading volume and keep its market value high? The contributor also stressed that there is no strong causal relationship between the two, and framed it only as an analytical guess related to SPCX’s share price.
The current SPCX price was described as being mainly pushed up by market sentiment. According to Vanda Track data from the past several days, SpaceX remained the most favored stock among retail funds and ranked first for several consecutive days on the U.S. retail net inflow list for individual stocks. The contributor added that retail enthusiasm will eventually fade, and that faith has a price. At that stage, institutions would need to take over the baton and become the main force stabilizing SPCX’s price.
BTC, IPO Views, HYPE Support and the ETH Split
Another contributor shared views across several markets. BTC had rebounded slightly, the U.S.-Iran situation had eased, and the contributor still maintained a bullish view for the time being. They said they would consider testing a short position in the 6w8 to 6w9 area. SpaceX’s IPO had ended, but its closing price on the day did not hold a $2.2 trillion market value, leading the contributor to lose 10 U. Still, the contributor said they were looking above 250 after the stock’s inclusion in the Nasdaq in July. Japanese and Korean stock markets were still pushing higher, and the trend of strong assets remaining strong was described as clear. The next landmark event identified by the contributor was either a Federal Reserve rate hike or an Anthropic/OpenAI IPO. In the contributor’s personal view, Anthropic has a chance to challenge for another historic IPO after SpaceX, with its valuation even rising to the $2 trillion to $3 trillion range. The contributor also referenced a post shared by group members saying that the AI industry, like real estate, is a heavy-asset industry, and said that positioning in shovel-selling defensive investments was a good line of thinking.
The final contributor reviewed trading in HYPE and views on ETH. In terms of operations, they bought HYPE for a long position when it fell to around $56 last week and gradually sold after it moved above $70. The sale was not because they were no longer optimistic, but because they believed it would be difficult for HYPE to achieve a major short-term breakout. Over the longer term, they believe the $50 to $60 range will become an important support zone and plan to continue buying in that area. The first reason is that Hyperliquid has captured the largest benefit from the current wave of traditional assets moving onto on-chain trading. Fees have continued to rise, HYPE buybacks have increased sharply, and the average monthly buyback over the past six months has exceeded $60 million. The contributor noted that 97% to 99% of Hyperliquid’s trading fee revenue is directly used to buy back HYPE in the open market, describing this as its largest growth flywheel.
The second reason was the performance of the HYPE spot ETF. Since listing, it has recorded cumulative net inflows of $180 million, with average daily net inflows of $7.5 million. The contributor said this clearly shows traditional capital’s preference for HYPE and described it as a treatment that other crypto ETFs did not receive after listing. On ETH, the contributor said the market is in a strange state. Pure crypto investors are extremely disappointed with ETH because its price performance over the past few years has been weak, resulting in lost opportunity cost. Traditional investors, especially Wall Street figures represented by Tom Lee, have instead continued to add real money to ETH and regard it as an undervalued Amazon. Neither side can convince the other, so the answer will be left to time. The contributor’s personal view is that ETH has fallen to a very low price level, and that the current entry cost is lower than Bitmine’s.