Prediction market traders are still betting that OpenAI may ship its next major AI model sooner rather than later. Markets tracking Astra, OpenAI’s internal name for GPT-6, show traders leaning toward a release within the next few weeks.
Polymarket points to mid- or late-September
On Polymarket, a contract tied to whether Astra will launch by September 15 implies 59% odds, with about $27,600 in volume. A second contract tied to a September 30 release stands near 72%, with roughly $35,600 in volume.
A separate market asking which week the model will arrive currently favors the August 31 to September 6 window at 39%. OpenAI has not announced a release date, so those contracts resolve based on the company’s own announcement.
The story also references a Myriad market carrying the prompt: 「When will OpenAI release GPT-6 Astra? Click to make your prediction.」
OpenAI said on August 7 that it slowed Astra’s release
That trader confidence cuts against OpenAI’s own stance earlier this month. On August 7, the company said it had slowed Astra’s release, citing cybersecurity risks.
OpenAI’s preparedness disclosure used stronger language. The company said internal evaluations of Astra showed 「significant advancements in agentic coding and cybersecurity,」 and concluded that it 「cannot rule out critical cyber capabilities」 under its safety framework.
By OpenAI’s own definition, a model at its Critical threshold could find and build working zero-day exploits across many hardened systems without human help.
Myriad shows a different spread of bets
On Myriad, a prediction market maintained by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, the highest odds point to September 30 as the most likely date for GPT-6.
Myriad traders assign 31% odds to the end of September, only 19% to September 15, and 5% to August 21, though that longshot figure was described as rising.
Trader optimism and company caution remain far apart
The gap between OpenAI’s caution and market optimism is notable, but the report says it is not unusual in this area. Prediction markets have reached $2 billion in weekly volume this year, with Polymarket extending its lead, and OpenAI launch-date contracts remain a recurring favorite among traders.
Back in July, odds of a public GPT-6 release by September 30 were running at around 78%.
OpenAI also said in a post that Astra 「was not involved in exploiting Hugging Face,」 distancing the model from a recent incident while the company weighs how to release something it says it still cannot fully safety-test.