At the macro level, shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy continue to drive the pricing rhythm of risk assets. After a period of consolidation, the crypto market is witnessing concentrated divergence between bulls and bears at critical price levels. This weekly review employs a multi-timeframe structure analysis combined with quantitative model signals to assess the outlook for BTC and HYPE this week and formulate specific short-to-medium-term trading plans.
BTC Structure: Retest Confirmation Phase
On the 4-hour chart, since the bounce from the June 5 low of $59,100, the price has formed a five-wave structure (36-37, 37-38, 38-39, 39-40, 40-41). The overall pattern is a short-term rising channel: the upper trendline connects points 37 and 39, while the lower trendline connects points 36 and 38. Price broke below the lower trendline at point 40, and the current rally (wave 40-41) is acting as a retest of that breakdown. If point 41 fails to hold above the lower channel line, the probability of a retest of the $59,100 support increases significantly. The immediate support zone lies at $59,000–$60,000, with secondary support near $55,000.
Trading Strategy and Position Management
The position monitoring model indicates that price has effectively broken below the 'long-short channel,' confirming a shift to bearish market structure. Following last week's plan, short positions were initiated near $64,500, with the initial medium-term position size at around 20% of total capital. Further additions will await subsequent signals. For short-term trading, 30% of capital is allocated with strict stop-losses, targeting spread opportunities on the 30-minute/60-minute timeframe based on support and resistance levels. Three specific contingency plans (A/B/C) have been prepared to dynamically respond to complex market developments.
HYPE: Three-Wave Correction Reaches Support
On the 4-hour chart, HYPE began its decline from the June 2 high of $75.87 (point 47) and found support at $52.62 (point 50) on June 10 after roughly nine days of correction. The subsequent rally (wave 50-51) broke above the previous high in six days, reaching $76.94—a new high since January—indicating strong bullish momentum. The pullback from the high formed a clear three-wave corrective structure (51-52, 52-53, 53-54), with price now retesting the key support zone of $64–$66. Key resistance lies near $77 and the $80–$82 area. If price shows signs of stabilization at the $64–$66 zone or a deeper $52–$54 zone, and both quantitative models trigger bottom signals, a light long position (under 30% of capital) could be considered with strict stop-losses.
Financial markets change rapidly; all analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies in this article are derived from personal technical analysis and serve solely as personal trading journal entries. They do not constitute any form of investment advice or trading recommendation. Market risk exists; invest cautiously and do not rely on this content for decision-making.
