Polymarket bettor’s $1.23 million Argentina World Cup wager is down 99.5%

A Polymarket user identified as gud.hl has seen a massive paper loss on a prediction tied to Argentina winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to on-chain tracker Lookonchain. The trader bought 12.354 million shares in the contract at about $0.10 each, putting in roughly $1.23 million. If Argentina were to win the tournament, the position’s maximum payout would reach about $12.35 million. That upside reflected the binary structure of prediction-market contracts, where winning shares settle at $1. Market pricing has since moved sharply against the trade. Lookonchain said the contract is now trading at about $0.001 per share, leaving the position worth only around $6,177. Based on those figures, the unrealized loss stands at roughly $1.223 million, or 99.5% of the original capital committed. The trade highlights the volatility of long-dated event contracts on prediction markets, where shifts in expectations can erase most of a position’s value long before the underlying event is decided.