PPP’s prediction market tracker shows that the Polymarket contract on whether Bitcoin will fall to $62,500 during July has dropped to a 28% probability, down 23% over the past 24 hours. The market’s resolution terms are narrowly defined. It will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point from 00:00 on the first day of July to 23:59 on the last day of July in Eastern Time, the final low on any one-minute candlestick for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance touches or falls below the stated price. If that does not happen, the contract resolves to “No.” The rules also specify that only Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candlestick data will be used for settlement. Prices from other exchanges, other trading pairs, and spot market references outside that benchmark are excluded from the outcome determination.
PPP’s prediction market tracker shows that the Polymarket contract on whether Bitcoin will fall to $62,500 in July has dropped to 28%, marking a 23% decline over the past 24 hours.
Settlement is based only on Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candles
Under the market’s resolution rules, the event will resolve to “Yes” if, at any time during July — from 00:00 on the first day to 23:59 on the last day in Eastern Time — the final low on any one-minute candlestick for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance touches or falls below the target price stated in the market title. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.”
The rules state that settlement will rely solely on one-minute candlestick data for Binance’s BTC/USDT pair. Data from other exchanges, other trading pairs, and spot market prices outside that benchmark will not be considered.
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