Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said at Token2049 in Singapore on Oct. 7 that the hunt for the next 100x token is turning into what he called a game of "irrational exuberance and hot potato." He said some traders buy tokens even when they believe those assets have no real value, hoping to exit before prices fall to zero. While some participants do make money this way, Coplan argued that assets pushed sharply higher eventually give back those gains.
He said Polymarket’s user growth suggests that some traders are moving toward opportunities with more predictable odds instead of chasing the next hot token. Coplan added that prediction markets do not offer exponential upside, but traders with relevant information still find them attractive. DefiLlama data cited in the report showed Polymarket recorded about $1.21 billion in trading volume over the past seven days, ranking second among prediction markets, while Kalshi posted about $2.3 billion. The report also noted that prediction markets carry risks, including information asymmetry highlighted by 10x Research and legal action tied to sports event contracts brought by more than a dozen U.S. states against Polymarket, Kalshi, or both.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said at Token2049 in Singapore on Oct. 7 that chasing the next 100x token is becoming a game of "irrational exuberance and hot potato."
Coplan said some traders still buy tokens even when they believe those assets have no value, simply because they see a chance for a 100-fold move and hope to sell before the price drops to zero. Some people do build wealth that way, he said, but in his view, assets that have already surged eventually fall back.
Some traders are looking for more predictable odds
Coplan said Polymarket’s user growth shows that part of the trading crowd is looking for opportunities with more predictable odds rather than chasing the next popular token. He added that prediction markets do not offer exponential upside, but traders who hold relevant information are still willing to participate.
Volume data and market risks
According to DefiLlama data cited in the report, Polymarket posted about $1.21 billion in trading volume over the past seven days, ranking second among prediction markets. Kalshi recorded about $2.3 billion.
Prediction markets also face risks. A previous report from 10x Research said data-driven professional traders may profit from information asymmetry and price spreads. The report also said that more than a dozen U.S. states have taken legal action over sports event contracts against Polymarket, Kalshi, or both.
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