BlockBeats reported on July 31, citing Hyperinsight, that Polymarket trader "BearKingdom" is simultaneously betting on a shift in U.S. politics and a drop in risk assets.
In the prediction market, the trader is betting that Democrats will control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections and that the CLARITY Act will not be signed into law in 2026. On Hyperliquid, the same trader is short the S&P 500, SK Hynix, and CXMT, with the three positions carrying a combined notional value of about $6.492 million.
Six Polymarket positions show an unrealized gain
BearKingdom currently holds six positions on Polymarket. Total capital deployed is about $164,100, and the positions are now worth around $193,800, for an unrealized profit of about $29,700.
Three of those are Yes positions tied to Democrats taking control of Congress. Those positions were built with about $72,500 and are now worth about $79,200:
- "Democrats control the House" Yes: 47,300 shares, valued at about $40,400;
- "Democrats control the Senate" Yes: 79,900 shares, valued at about $34,800;
- "Democrats control both chambers" Yes: 9,224 shares, valued at about $4,013.
The trader's largest prediction-market position is a bet that the CLARITY Act will not be signed into law in 2026. BearKingdom holds 153,500 No shares in that contract, with a cost basis of about $84,600 and a current value of about $106,700, leaving an unrealized gain of about $22,100.
On-chain links connect the accounts
According to the on-chain association cited in the report, a Hyperliquid external wallet beginning with 0x48d corresponds to the Polymarket account "BearKingdom" and its proxy wallet starting with 0xabe.
Three Hyperliquid shorts total about $6.492 million
On Hyperliquid, the trader currently holds three short positions worth about $6.492 million in total, with a net unrealized loss of about $148,300.
- S&P 500: a 6x isolated short worth about $3.244 million, entered at an average price of $6,757.58, with an unrealized loss of about $307,500;
- SK Hynix: a 2x isolated short worth about $2.721 million, entered at an average price of $1,266.05, with an unrealized gain of about $191,000;
- CXMT: a 2x isolated short worth about $527,100, entered at an average price of $7.075, with an unrealized loss of about $31,800.
The trader has also placed 88 reduce-only buy orders for the full 70,000-share CXMT short. Those orders are concentrated between $6 and $6.6679, with a weighted average order price of about $6.2456, indicating a plan to take profit in stages if the price falls back.
Different contracts, similar positioning
BearKingdom is not trading the same event across Polymarket and Hyperliquid, but the positions point in a similar direction. On the prediction-market side, the account is betting on Democrats retaking Congress and on a delay in the crypto regulatory process. On the trading side, the bet is that the broader U.S. equity market and memory-related stocks face pressure at elevated levels.