PPP prediction market tools monitor that Polymarket has launched a new event: "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire?" As of the latest data, probabilities for key deadlines stand at 24% for Sept 4, 46% for Sept 11, 64% for Sept 18, and 73% for Sept 30.
Market Rules
According to the market rules, if a continuous 14-day period without qualifying US military action against Iran begins before the specified deadline, the market settles as "Yes"; otherwise, it settles as "No." The 14-day count starts from the day after the most recent qualifying military action occurs. If no such action has occurred since market creation, the count starts from the creation date.
Qualifying military actions are defined as US-initiated airstrikes or ground-to-ground missile strikes that directly hit Iranian territory, including internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are excluded.
Settlement Basis
The market uses official information from the US and Iranian governments and military, as well as credible media reports, to determine settlement.