Polymarket2026-10-08 06:28:53Polymarket odds of a new Fable model by Oct. 12 fall to 17%PPP’s prediction market tracker said the Polymarket contract on whether a new Fable model, defined as version 5.2 or higher, will be released before Oct. 12 has dropped to 17%, down 31% over the past 24 hours. The market resolves Yes if Anthropic makes a model publicly available between the market’s creation and the specified deadline, based on Eastern Time, and that model’s name or identifier includes “Fable” with a version number of 5.2 or above. Versions such as Claude Fable 5.2, 5.3, and 6 qualify under the listed rules, while Fable 5.1 and models that do not include the word “Fable” do not. The rules also say that a public release includes a full launch, a public beta, or an openly accessible rolling waitlist signup. Closed testing and private access are excluded. A version name appearing on Anthropic’s website, placeholder text, or a labeling error without actual public availability would also fail to meet the criteria. Settlement is set to rely primarily on Anthropic’s official announcements and website information, with consistent reporting from credible media used as a reference.240
Polymarket2026-10-07 16:51:25predict.fun says Polymarket token odds fell to 17% at TOKEN2049predict.fun said in a post on X that the probability of Polymarket announcing a token at TOKEN2049 has dropped sharply, falling from 63% to 17%. The update was cited by Odaily in a brief newsflash published on Oct. 7, 2026. No additional details were provided in the source material about how the probability was measured or whether Polymarket itself issued a formal statement beyond the event reference. The item was categorized as a 7x24 newsflash and presented as a short market update centered on expectations around a possible token announcement.220
predict.fun2026-09-06 09:47:11predict.fun Shows 65% Probability for NIP to Beat LGD in LPL Lower BracketAccording to monitoring data, predict.fun's prediction market for the LPL playoff match between NIP and LGD shows a 65% probability of NIP winning. The BO5 match is scheduled for 5:00 PM today in the lower bracket. The loser will be eliminated, while the winner will face IG in the next round for the Bubble qualification. NIP has been dominant, sweeping JDG 3-0 yesterday and EDG 3-0 earlier, winning two consecutive BO5 series without dropping a game. LGD staged a 3-2 comeback against TES but then lost 1-3 to AL.1020
Federal Reser2026-09-04 12:37:33Traders Increase Bets on Fed Rate Hike in September, Probability Exceeds 60%According to BlockBeats, on September 4, traders continued to increase their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Data from the swap market indicated that the probability of a rate hike in September has exceeded 60%.960
predict.fun2026-09-03 08:01:34predict.fun Shows DK 75% Favorite Over BFX in LCK Playoffs Loser BracketMonitoring data shows that predict.fun's prediction event for the LCK playoffs match between DK and BFX gives DK a 75% chance of winning. The BO5 loser bracket match kicks off at 4 PM today, with the winner facing KT tomorrow and the loser eliminated. DK was swept 0-3 by KT, while BFX fell 2-3 in a five-game series against T1.1150
Polymarket2026-09-02 11:40:35Polymarket Launches US-Iran Ceasefire Prediction: 73% Probability by Sept 30Polymarket has introduced a new prediction market on when the US and Iran will achieve a two-week ceasefire. Probabilities step up across deadlines, reaching 73% by Sept 30. The market defines a ceasefire as 14 consecutive days without qualifying US military strikes on Iranian soil, with settlement based on official statements and credible media reports.1060
Federal Reser2026-09-01 17:21:55Kalshi Shows 60% Probability of Fed Rate Hike This Month, a Record HighPrediction market platform Kalshi reports a 60% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at this month's FOMC meeting, the highest in the platform's history. This shift reflects market adjustments to recent inflation data and Fed policy expectations.850
Polymarket2026-09-01 12:39:30Polymarket Puts 35% Probability on Gemini 4.0 Release Before Sept 30, Up 12% in 24 HoursPolymarket bettors now estimate a 35% probability that Google will release Gemini 4.0 before September 30, up 12% in the past 24 hours. The market resolves to "Yes" if Gemini 4.0 Flash is made publicly available by that date, including public beta or open waitlist; closed testing or private access does not count. The model must be explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or recognized as the next-generation successor to Gemini 3. Variants like Gemini 3.0 Flash or 2.5 are ineligible. Resolution relies on official Google announcements and credible media reports.970
