PPP’s prediction market tracker said the Polymarket contract on whether a new Fable model, defined as version 5.2 or higher, will be released before Oct. 12 has dropped to 17%, down 31% over the past 24 hours. The market resolves Yes if Anthropic makes a model publicly available between the market’s creation and the specified deadline, based on Eastern Time, and that model’s name or identifier includes “Fable” with a version number of 5.2 or above. Versions such as Claude Fable 5.2, 5.3, and 6 qualify under the listed rules, while Fable 5.1 and models that do not include the word “Fable” do not. The rules also say that a public release includes a full launch, a public beta, or an openly accessible rolling waitlist signup. Closed testing and private access are excluded. A version name appearing on Anthropic’s website, placeholder text, or a labeling error without actual public availability would also fail to meet the criteria. Settlement is set to rely primarily on Anthropic’s official announcements and website information, with consistent reporting from credible media used as a reference.
PPP’s prediction market tracker said the Polymarket contract on whether a new Fable model, defined as version 5.2 or higher, will be released before Oct. 12 has fallen to 17%, a 31% drop over the last 24 hours.
How the market resolves
Under the listed rules, the market resolves Yes if Anthropic makes a model publicly available between the market’s creation and the stated deadline, based on Eastern Time, and the model’s name or identifier includes “Fable” with a version number of 5.2 or above. Otherwise, it resolves No.
Claude Fable 5.2, 5.3, and 6 would qualify. Fable 5.1 would not. Models that do not include “Fable” in the name would also not qualify.
What counts as a public release
The rules say a public release includes a formal launch, a public test, or an openly available rolling waitlist signup. Closed testing and private access do not count.
A version name appearing on Anthropic’s website, placeholder text, or a labeling error would not be enough if the model is not actually made available to the public.
Settlement sources
Settlement will rely primarily on Anthropic’s official announcements and website information, with consistent reporting from credible media used as a reference.
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