Data tracked by PPP’s prediction market tool showed higher odds on Polymarket for a new round of U.S.-Iran peace talks before the end of August. The contract on talks taking place by Aug. 31 climbed to 51%, up 17% over the past 24 hours, while the odds of talks occurring by Aug. 15 rose to 27%, a 13% gain in the same period. The move came after Donald Trump said in a social media post that Iran had asked for an attack to be delayed and that he agreed to cancel a strike in exchange for a deal. Trump also said the United States was prepared to confront Iran with a level of military deterrence, force and strength not seen since World War II, and claimed a framework for an agreement had already been reached. He said that framework would include the immediate, full and complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat, adding that the attack would be canceled if a deal could be reached quickly.
PPP’s prediction market tracker showed rising odds on Polymarket for a new round of U.S.-Iran peace talks.
The contract on whether the next round of talks will take place before Aug. 31 rose to 51%, up 17% in the past 24 hours. A separate contract on whether talks will happen before Aug. 15 climbed to 27%, a 13% increase over the same period.
Trump said in a social media post on the same day that he had received a request from Iran to delay an attack and agreed to cancel a strike in exchange for a deal. He said the United States was ready to confront Iran with a level of military deterrence, force and strength not seen since World War II, adding that a framework for an agreement had already been reached.
According to Trump, that framework would include the immediate, full and complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. He also said he agreed to cancel the attack for “the future interests of the world” and for the survival of “a successful and prosperous Iran,” provided that an agreement could be reached quickly.
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