Robinhood (HOOD) has recently delivered a strong share-price performance. According to the source article, the stock briefly returned above the $100 mark last night, although it failed to hold that level into the close. Even so, the author remains broadly optimistic about HOOD’s later performance. The reasons behind the recent rally can be read from several angles, including fundamentals, news flow and more direct market signals.
Prediction markets, IPO traffic and Trump Accounts
On the fundamental side, Robinhood released its May operating data last week, which the source presents as one of the starting points for looking at the company’s recent business momentum. The article does not list the detailed figures in the provided text, but it uses the update as part of a broader discussion about why investors have been willing to reprice HOOD.
The first news-driven factor is prediction markets, described in the source as Robinhood’s fastest-growing segment. Robinhood has started using its self-built prediction market, Rothera, to intercept business from Kalshi. The author argues that related revenue would no longer need to be shared with Kalshi. The source also refers readers to a previously published article titled The first prediction-market concept stock has appeared!
The second factor is the IPO arena. SpaceX’s historic IPO brought record-level traffic to Robinhood, according to the article. More importantly, Robinhood’s brokerage and clearing unit, Robinhood Securities, was approved last week to act as an IPO underwriter. In the author’s view, this gives Robinhood room to take on a more central role in future IPO activity, with Anthropic and OpenAI named in the source as examples.
A third factor comes from the U.S. Treasury. Robinhood has been selected as the broker and initial custodian for Trump Accounts. The source explains that Trump Accounts are tax-deferred investment accounts authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump on June 9, 2025, under the Big and Beautiful bill. The plan is designed to create government-funded savings accounts for children who are U.S. citizens and born between January 1, 2025, and January 1, 2029. The author’s point is that tens of millions of newborns in the United States over the coming years will default to Robinhood as their brokerage platform. The source also references another related article, Robinhood has gained a new group of stock investors, the oldest is 1 year old and the youngest is -3 years old.
From a Q2 earnings trade to a broader revaluation thesis
The author says the initial reason for building a HOOD position was confidence in Robinhood’s Q2 earnings performance. The first part of that logic was the expectation that, during what the article calls an epic U.S. equity market rally, stock-trading-related revenue would see a major surge in the current quarter. The second part was the expected increase in prediction-market trading volume around the World Cup, together with the revenue-retention effect created by Rothera.
However, the author later shifted a much larger portion of holdings, mainly some remaining crypto assets, into HOOD for a different reason. This is presented as the real focus of the article. In early May, a friend asked what the author had recently bought. The author mentioned HOOD. At that time, HOOD had just fallen from above $90 because its Q1 earnings had come in below expectations, mainly due to an unexpected $100 million expense related to Trump Accounts. The short-term chart looked weak.
After the author explained the reasoning, the friend said most of his positions were trapped and that he had little capital left to deploy. When asked what he was holding, the answer was largely altcoins. The author’s response at the time was direct: Rather than keeping an obsession with altcoins, it would be better to rotate directly into HOOD.
HOOD’s link with crypto is changing
The background to that judgment is that crypto-related revenue has long been an important part of Robinhood’s total revenue, and HOOD’s share price has historically shown a strong correlation with the crypto market. The source argues, however, that recent signs show Robinhood is breaking through its dependence on the crypto business and moving away from that correlation in a positive direction.
The article points first to Robinhood’s crypto-related revenue over the past five quarters. The overall share of this revenue line has been declining, and the Q1 share had fallen to its lowest level since 2025. It then compares HOOD’s price movements with BTC since the start of the year. For most of the year, HOOD and BTC moved in similar patterns, but a clear divergence has appeared recently.
The author stresses these two observations because they show that the valuation logic around HOOD has begun to change. In the past, HOOD was often treated as a shadow stock of the crypto market. When crypto surged, retail traders rushed into Robinhood to trade altcoins, fee income jumped and the stock price took off. When crypto weakened, retail traders left, and Robinhood’s revenue quickly slipped.
That is no longer the whole story presented by the article. Robinhood is not as dependent on crypto as it once was. Even if the crypto market remains in its current low-activity state, the author argues that stock trading, prediction markets, Pre-IPO business and the newly added underwriting business can still support performance growth.
This does not mean the crypto market will stop affecting HOOD. On the contrary, if a crypto bull market returns, Robinhood’s crypto trading revenue is described as highly likely to expand at the same time, allowing HOOD to benefit from industry growth. The author puts it more plainly: crypto will still affect HOOD, but HOOD no longer depends on crypto. If the crypto bull market comes back, HOOD can rise with it; if crypto remains sluggish, HOOD still has other business lines to rely on.
For investors who still hold expectations for altcoins while becoming increasingly worried about liquidity drying up, narratives failing and value capture problems, the source’s conclusion is that waiting for an unknown token to find its next narrative is less attractive than looking at HOOD. In the author’s framing, HOOD currently offers a higher margin of safety than continuing to rely on an altcoin narrative that has not yet returned.