Robinhood (HOOD) has recently delivered a strong share-price performance. According to the OdailyDepth article, the stock briefly returned above $100 during the previous night’s session, although it failed to hold that level into the close. The author remains relatively optimistic about HOOD’s future performance and argues that the recent rally can be explained through several layers, including operating fundamentals, company-specific news and changing market behavior.
Operating data, prediction markets and the IPO channel
On the fundamental side, Robinhood released its May operating data last week. The source article does not reproduce the detailed figures in the provided text, but it treats the disclosure as one part of the broader case for HOOD. The more emotion-driven part of the story, in the author’s view, comes from recent positive news around Robinhood’s newer business lines.
The first of those lines is prediction markets, described in the article as the fastest-growing area. Robinhood has started using its self-built prediction market, Rothera, to intercept activity that would previously have gone through Kalshi. As a result, the related revenue is expected no longer to be shared with Kalshi. The original piece also points readers to Odaily’s earlier article titled 《预测市场概念第一股出现了！》 for additional background on that development.
The second line is Robinhood’s role in IPO-related activity. The article says SpaceX’s historic IPO brought record-level traffic to Robinhood. More importantly, Robinhood Securities, the company’s brokerage and clearing unit, was approved last week to act as an IPO underwriter. That approval gives Robinhood room to take a more central role in future IPO events mentioned by the author, including Anthropic and OpenAI.
The third line is the selection of Robinhood by the U.S. Treasury as broker and initial custodian for the “Trump accounts.” The article explains that these accounts were authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump on June 9, 2025 under the “Big and Beautiful” bill. They are tax-deferred investment accounts designed as government-funded savings accounts for children who are U.S. citizens and born between January 1, 2025 and January 1, 2029. In the author’s wording, this means tens of millions of American newborns over the next few years will use Robinhood by default as their brokerage platform. The source also references another Odaily article, 《Robinhood多了一批新股民，最大的1岁，最小的-3岁》.
The author’s shift from a Q2 earnings trade to a portfolio rotation
The author says the original reason for building a HOOD position was confidence in Robinhood’s Q2 earnings performance. That view had two main components. One was the expectation that, amid an epic rally in U.S. equities, stock-trading-related revenue would break out during the quarter. The other was the expected surge in prediction-market volume linked to the World Cup, together with the income retained through Rothera’s ability to redirect revenue away from Kalshi.
The later decision to move a much larger portion of the author’s portfolio into HOOD, mainly from remaining crypto assets, came from a different line of reasoning. In early May, a friend asked what the author had recently bought. The author mentioned HOOD. At that time, however, HOOD had just fallen from above $90 after Q1 earnings missed expectations. The main reason cited was an unexpected $100 million expense related to the “Trump accounts.” Its short-term chart looked weak.
When the friend said that existing positions were stuck and there was little cash left to deploy, the author asked what those positions were. The answer, as the article puts it, was mostly altcoins. The author’s response became the central line of the piece: “Rather than remaining fixated on altcoins, it is better to rotate directly into HOOD.”
Why HOOD is no longer just a crypto shadow stock
The background for that judgment is Robinhood’s historical relationship with crypto. For a long period, crypto-related revenue was an important component of the company’s total revenue, and HOOD’s share price also showed a strong connection with cryptocurrency prices. Recently, however, the article says there are signs that Robinhood is breaking through its reliance on the crypto business and positively moving away from that correlation.
The first sign is the trend in Robinhood’s crypto-related revenue over the past five quarters. The article states that the share of this revenue has been declining overall, and that the Q1 share has dropped to its lowest level since 2025. The second sign is the direct comparison between HOOD and BTC price movements. Since the beginning of the year, HOOD generally moved in a way similar to BTC, but the two have recently shown a clear divergence.
The author stresses these two points because the valuation logic around HOOD has begun to change. In the past, HOOD was often viewed as a “shadow stock” of the crypto market. When crypto prices surged, retail users rushed into Robinhood to trade altcoins, fee revenue jumped and the stock rose. When crypto cooled, retail users left, and Robinhood’s revenue quickly weakened. That cycle made the business look closely tied to crypto bull and bear markets.
Now, the article argues, Robinhood is no longer as dependent on crypto as it once was. Even if the crypto market continues in its current half-dead state, the author says stock trading, prediction markets, Pre-IPO activity and the newly added underwriting business can still support performance growth. This does not mean crypto will stop affecting HOOD. On the contrary, if the crypto market returns to a bull market, Robinhood’s crypto trading revenue would most likely expand at the same time, allowing HOOD to continue benefiting from industry growth.
The author summarizes the point in more direct language: the crypto sector will still affect HOOD, but HOOD no longer depends on the crypto sector. If a crypto bull market returns, HOOD can still rise with it; if crypto remains sluggish, HOOD has other businesses to lean on. For investors who still have expectations for altcoins but are increasingly worried about drying liquidity, failed narratives and value-capture problems, the author views HOOD as a current alternative with a higher margin of safety.