Robinhood (HOOD) has shown notable strength in recent trading. The stock briefly moved back above the $100 level overnight, although it failed to hold that mark by the close. The original analysis remains relatively optimistic on HOOD’s subsequent performance, and its central point is that the stock’s recent rise should not be explained only through the lens of crypto trading activity.
On the fundamental side, Robinhood released its May operating data last week. The source article does not provide the underlying figures, but it presents the update as one part of the current bullish explanation. The bigger driver in the piece is the news flow around Robinhood’s expanding business lines: prediction markets, IPO-related activity, the Trump Account program, and the company’s newly approved underwriting role.
Prediction markets, IPO flow and the Trump Account
In prediction markets, described in the source as one of the fastest-growing areas, Robinhood has started using its self-built prediction market Rothera to intercept flow from Kalshi. The article states that related revenue is expected to no longer be shared with Kalshi. It also refers readers to Odaily’s earlier article titled “The first stock of the prediction market concept has appeared!” for more detail on that theme.
The IPO channel is another part of the Robinhood narrative. According to the source, SpaceX’s historical-level IPO brought record-level traffic to Robinhood. More importantly, Robinhood Securities, the company’s brokerage and clearing business unit, was approved last week to act as an IPO underwriter. That approval means Robinhood has room to play a more central role in future IPO activities, with Anthropic and OpenAI cited in the original article as examples.
The third strand is the Trump Account. Robinhood has been selected by the U.S. Treasury Department to serve as the brokerage platform and initial trustee for the program. The Trump Account is a tax-deferred investment account plan authorized by President Donald Trump on June 9, 2025 under the “Big and Beautiful” bill. It is designed to establish government-funded savings accounts for children who are U.S. citizens and are born between January 1, 2025 and January 1, 2029. The original article notes that tens of millions of American newborns in the coming years will by default use Robinhood as their brokerage platform, and it points to another Odaily article titled “Robinhood has gained a new batch of stock investors, the oldest is 1 year old and the youngest is -3 years old.”
From a Q2 earnings thesis to a larger position switch
The author’s initial reason for building a HOOD position was a positive view on the company’s Q2 earnings performance. The thesis had two components. One was that, under what the source calls an epic rally in U.S. equities, stock-trading-related revenue for the quarter would see a major expansion. The other was that the World Cup could drive a surge in prediction-market trading volume, while Rothera’s role in retaining revenue would also matter.
The author later moved a larger portion of holdings into HOOD, mainly by switching out of some remaining crypto assets. That shift was based on a different logic, which the source presents as the real core of the article. In early May, a friend asked what the author had bought recently. The author mentioned HOOD. At that time, HOOD had just dropped from above $90 after Q1 earnings came in below expectations, mainly because of an unexpected $100 million expense related to the Trump Account. The short-term stock chart looked poor.
When the friend asked for the reasoning, the author briefly explained the points above. The friend then said that existing positions were trapped and that there was not much cash left to deploy. After asking what those positions were, the author found that they were, unsurprisingly, mostly altcoins. The response given at the time was direct: “Rather than staying attached to altcoins, it is better to switch directly into HOOD.”
Why the HOOD valuation logic is changing
The background for that judgment is that crypto-related revenue had long been an important part of Robinhood’s total revenue. HOOD’s share price also had a strong correlation with cryptocurrencies. Recently, however, the original article argues that there are signs Robinhood is breaking through its reliance on the crypto business and moving away from that correlation in a positive direction.
The first data point is Robinhood’s crypto-related revenue over the past five quarters. According to the source, the share of this revenue category has generally been declining, and the Q1 share fell to a new low since 2025. The second comparison is the direct visual relationship between HOOD and BTC price movements. Since the beginning of the year, HOOD had generally moved in a pattern similar to BTC, but a clear divergence has appeared recently.
The article emphasizes these two points to argue that the valuation logic around HOOD is changing. In the past, HOOD was often viewed as a “shadow stock” of the crypto market. When crypto surged, retail traders entered Robinhood and traded altcoins aggressively, fee revenue rose sharply, and the stock took off. When crypto weakened, retail traders left, and Robinhood’s revenue quickly came under pressure.
Now, in the author’s view, Robinhood is no longer as dependent on crypto as it once was. Even if the crypto market continues to remain in its current sluggish state, stock trading, prediction markets, Pre-IPO services and the newly added underwriting business can still support performance growth. This does not mean crypto will stop affecting HOOD. On the contrary, if the crypto market returns to a bull market, Robinhood’s crypto trading revenue will most likely rise with it, and HOOD can still enjoy the benefits of industry growth.
The source puts the conclusion in simpler terms: crypto will still influence HOOD, but HOOD no longer depends on crypto. If a crypto bull market returns, HOOD can still rise with it; if crypto remains half-dead, HOOD is not defined by that condition. For investors who still have expectations for altcoins but are increasingly worried about liquidity drying up, failed narratives and value-capture problems, the article argues that rather than continuing to pin hopes on a token waiting for its next narrative cycle, HOOD currently offers a choice with a higher margin of safety.