Robinhood (HOOD) has shown notable strength in recent trading. The stock briefly climbed back above $100 last night, although it failed to hold that level into the close. The original article’s author remains optimistic about HOOD’s later performance and argues that the move can be explained through several layers, including fundamentals, news-driven catalysts and visible shifts in market behavior.
On the fundamental side, Robinhood published its May operating data last week, which the article treats as one reference point for the stock’s recent strength. The more emotionally powerful drivers, however, come from the news side. In prediction markets, Robinhood has started using its self-built prediction market Rothera to intercept activity that previously involved Kalshi. Under that structure, the related revenue no longer needs to be shared with Kalshi. The source also refers readers to Odaily’s earlier article, “The first prediction-market concept stock has appeared!”, for more background on that topic.
The IPO business is another part of the author’s thesis. SpaceX’s historic IPO brought record-level traffic to Robinhood, according to the source. More importantly, Robinhood Securities, the company’s brokerage and clearing unit, was approved last week to act as an IPO underwriter. The article says this gives Robinhood a path to play a more central role in future IPO activity, including names such as Anthropic and OpenAI. Robinhood has also been selected by the U.S. Treasury as the broker and initial trustee for Trump Accounts. These accounts were authorized by U.S. President Trump on June 9, 2025 under the “Big Beautiful” bill as a tax-deferred investment account program. They are designed to create government-funded savings accounts for children who are U.S. citizens born from January 1, 2025 to January 1, 2029. The source states that tens of millions of U.S. newborns over the next few years will default to Robinhood as their brokerage platform.
The author says the original reason for building a HOOD position was an expectation of strong Q2 results. One part of that view was that the historic rally in U.S. equities would drive a major increase in stock-trading-related revenue during the quarter. Another part was that the World Cup could increase prediction-market trading volume, while Rothera would allow Robinhood to capture revenue that would otherwise have been shared. The later decision to move a larger part of the author’s position, mainly remaining crypto assets, into HOOD came from a different line of reasoning.
In early May, a friend asked the author what he had recently bought, and the author mentioned HOOD. At the time, HOOD had just fallen from above $90 after a Q1 report that missed expectations. The miss was mainly tied to an unexpected $100 million expense related to Trump Accounts, and the near-term chart looked weak. After hearing the explanation, the friend said his positions were trapped and he had little cash available. When asked what he held, the answer was mostly altcoins. The author’s response was direct: rather than remaining attached to altcoins, he would switch the position into HOOD.
The reasoning behind that statement is that crypto-related revenue had long been an important part of Robinhood’s total revenue, and HOOD’s stock had also shown a strong connection with cryptocurrency market movements. Recently, however, the author sees signs that Robinhood is breaking through its dependence on the crypto business and is moving away from that correlation. Looking across the past five quarters, Robinhood’s crypto-related revenue share has generally been trending lower, and the Q1 share fell to the lowest level since 2025.
The article also compares HOOD with BTC price movements. Since the beginning of the year, HOOD has often moved in a way that looked similar to BTC, but a clear divergence has appeared recently. The author uses these two points to argue that the valuation logic around HOOD is changing. In the past, HOOD was often treated as a crypto market shadow stock. When crypto surged, retail traders rushed into Robinhood to trade altcoins, fee revenue climbed and the stock rallied. When crypto weakened, retail traders left and Robinhood’s revenue quickly came under pressure.
The source’s key argument is that Robinhood is no longer as dependent on crypto as it once was. Even if the crypto market remains weak, stock trading, prediction markets, Pre-IPO activity and the newly added underwriting business can still support growth in the company’s performance. This does not mean crypto will stop affecting HOOD. On the contrary, if crypto returns to a bull market, Robinhood’s crypto trading revenue would very likely expand at the same time, allowing HOOD to benefit from industry growth. The article’s plain-language conclusion is that crypto still affects HOOD, but HOOD no longer depends on crypto. For investors who still hope for an altcoin rebound while worrying about drying liquidity, failed narratives and value-capture problems, the author presents HOOD as an option with a higher margin of safety at this stage.