Robinhood (HOOD) has shown notable strength in recent trading. The stock briefly moved back above $100 last night, although it failed to hold that level into the close. The author of the original OdailyDepth article still takes a constructive view on HOOD’s later performance, while emphasizing that the reasons behind the recent move can be explained through several dimensions: fundamentals, news developments, and more direct market signals.
Prediction markets, IPO traffic and the “Trump Account” role
On the fundamental side, Robinhood released its May operating data last week, which the article treats as one of the references behind the stock’s recent performance. The source excerpt does not provide the specific figures from that operating update, but it places the data alongside several news catalysts that the author believes have had a stronger effect on investor sentiment.
The first of these catalysts is the prediction market business, described in the source as the fastest-growing area. Robinhood has started using its self-built prediction market Rothera to intercept flow that previously involved Kalshi. According to the author, related revenue is expected no longer to require sharing with Kalshi. The article also points readers to Odaily’s earlier piece titled “The first prediction-market concept stock has appeared!” for more details on that theme.
The second catalyst is Robinhood’s role around IPO activity. SpaceX’s historic IPO brought record-level traffic to Robinhood, according to the article. More importantly, Robinhood Securities, the company’s brokerage and clearing business unit, was approved last week to act as an IPO underwriter. The author says this means Robinhood can take on a more central role in future IPO events, naming Anthropic and OpenAI as examples cited in the source.
Another development is Robinhood’s selection by the U.S. Treasury as broker and initial custodian for the “Trump Account.” The “Trump Account” is described as a tax-deferred investment account plan authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump on June 9, 2025 under the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” It is designed to create government-funded savings accounts for children who are U.S. citizens born between January 1, 2025 and January 1, 2029. The article states that this means tens of millions of U.S. newborns over the next few years will default to Robinhood as their brokerage platform, and references Odaily’s article “Robinhood has gained a new group of stock investors, the oldest is 1 year old and the youngest is -3 years old.”
From a Q2 earnings thesis to a broader rotation out of crypto assets
The author explains that the initial position in HOOD was mainly based on expectations for Robinhood’s Q2 earnings. One reason was the view that, under an epic rally in U.S. equities, stock-trading-related revenue in the quarter would see a sharp expansion. Another reason was the World Cup, which the author links to a surge in prediction market trading volume, together with the revenue interception effect of Rothera.
However, the reason for later moving a relatively large portion of the position into HOOD — mainly from remaining crypto assets — was different. The author describes a conversation from early May, when a friend asked what had been bought recently and HOOD was mentioned. At that time, HOOD had just fallen from above $90 after a Q1 earnings report that missed expectations, mainly because of an unexpected $100 million expense related to the “Trump Account.” The stock’s short-term trend looked poor.
After hearing the explanation, the friend said that most positions were trapped and there was little cash left. When the author asked what assets the friend held, the answer was mostly altcoins, as the author had expected. The author’s response was the central sentence of the article: rather than remaining attached to altcoins, it would be better to rotate directly into HOOD.
Why the author says HOOD is no longer only a crypto proxy
The background for that judgment is Robinhood’s long-standing connection to crypto trading. For a relatively long period, crypto-related revenue was an important part of Robinhood’s total revenue, and HOOD’s share price also had a strong correlation with cryptocurrency prices. Recently, however, the article says there are signs that Robinhood is breaking through its dependence on the crypto business and positively moving away from that correlation.
The author first points to Robinhood’s crypto-related revenue over the past five quarters. According to the article, the overall share of that revenue category has been declining, and its Q1 share has fallen to the lowest level since 2025. The author then compares HOOD’s price movement with BTC. Since the beginning of the year, HOOD mostly moved in a similar pattern to BTC, but a clear divergence has appeared recently.
These two points are used to argue that the valuation logic around HOOD has started to change. In the past, HOOD was often treated as a “shadow stock” of the crypto market. When crypto markets soared, retail traders rushed into Robinhood to trade altcoins, commission revenue surged, and the stock price rose. When crypto markets cooled, retail users left, and Robinhood’s revenue would quickly decline.
The article argues that Robinhood is no longer as highly dependent on crypto as it once was. Even if the crypto market continues in its current low-activity state, stock trading, prediction markets, Pre-IPO services and the newly added underwriting business can still support performance growth. At the same time, this does not mean crypto will stop affecting HOOD. If the crypto market returns to a bull market, the author believes Robinhood’s crypto trading revenue will most likely expand alongside it, allowing HOOD to still benefit from industry growth.
In the author’s plain formulation, crypto will still influence HOOD, but HOOD no longer depends on crypto. If the crypto bull market returns, HOOD can still rise with it; if crypto remains sluggish, HOOD has other business pillars. For investors who still have expectations for altcoins but are increasingly worried about liquidity drying up, narrative failure and value-capture problems, the article concludes that HOOD currently offers an option with a higher margin of safety.