Robinhood (HOOD) has shown notable strength in recent trading. The stock briefly moved back above the $100 mark overnight, although it failed to hold that level into the close. The original author remains relatively optimistic about HOOD’s future performance, arguing that the latest rally can be explained through several layers, including fundamentals, business developments and a broader shift in how investors value the company.
More Than One Driver Behind HOOD’s Recent Strength
On the fundamental side, Robinhood released its May operating data last week. The source does not list the detailed figures, but presents the update as one of the basic reasons supporting the recent move in the stock. The article places greater emphasis on the news-driven catalysts surrounding Robinhood, especially in areas that can directly shape investor sentiment.
The first area is prediction markets. Robinhood has begun using its self-built prediction market, Rothera, to intercept activity that previously involved Kalshi. According to the source, related revenue is expected to no longer require sharing with Kalshi going forward. The article points readers to Odaily’s earlier piece, “The First Prediction Market Concept Stock Has Appeared!”, for more detail on that part of the story.
The second area is IPO-related business. SpaceX’s historic IPO brought record-level traffic to Robinhood. More importantly, Robinhood Securities, the company’s brokerage and clearing business unit, received approval last week to act as an IPO underwriter. The source states that this gives Robinhood a path to take on a more central role in future IPO activities, with Anthropic and OpenAI named as examples.
The “Trump Account” Role Adds Another Layer
Robinhood has also been selected by the U.S. Treasury Department to serve as the brokerage and initial trustee for the “Trump Account.” The source describes the “Trump Account” as a tax-deferred investment account program authorized by President Donald Trump on June 9, 2025, under the “Big and Beautiful” bill. The program is designed to create government-funded savings accounts for children who are U.S. citizens and are born between January 1, 2025, and January 1, 2029.
In the author’s reading, this arrangement means that tens of millions of newborns in the United States over the next several years will default to using Robinhood as their brokerage platform. The article also refers readers to another Odaily piece titled “Robinhood Has Gained a New Group of Stock Investors, the Oldest Is 1 Year Old and the Youngest Is -3 Years Old.”
The author’s initial reason for building a position in HOOD was confidence in Robinhood’s Q2 earnings performance. The first part of that view was an expectation that stock-trading-related revenue would see a major increase during what the source describes as an epic U.S. equity market rally. The second part was linked to the World Cup, which the author expects to drive a surge in prediction market trading volume, together with Rothera’s role in capturing revenue.
Why the Author Swapped Crypto Exposure Into HOOD
The later decision to move a larger part of the position, mainly some remaining crypto assets, into HOOD came from a different logic. In early May, a friend asked the author what they had bought recently, and the author mentioned HOOD. At that time, HOOD had just fallen from above $90 after a Q1 earnings report that missed expectations. The source says the main reason was an unexpected $100 million expense related to the “Trump Account,” and the short-term chart looked weak.
After the author briefly explained the reasons for buying HOOD, the friend said that most of their positions were trapped and that they had little available capital. When asked what they were holding, the answer was largely altcoins. The author’s response was direct: “Rather than staying attached to altcoins, it would be better to switch directly into HOOD.”
The background to that judgment is that crypto-related revenue has been an important part of Robinhood’s total revenue for a long period of time. HOOD’s share price has also had a strong relationship with cryptocurrency market movements. However, the source argues that recent signs show Robinhood is breaking through its reliance on crypto business and is moving away from that correlation in a positive direction.
From Crypto Shadow Stock to Broader Business Platform
The article first looks at Robinhood’s crypto-related revenue over the past five quarters. It states that the share of this revenue has been declining overall, and that its Q1 proportion fell to the lowest level since 2025. It then compares HOOD’s movement with BTC price fluctuations. Since the beginning of the year, HOOD had mostly moved in a similar pattern to BTC, but a clear divergence has appeared recently.
The author uses these two points to argue that the valuation logic around HOOD has begun to change. In the past, HOOD was often viewed as a “shadow stock” of the crypto market. When crypto prices surged, retail investors rushed into Robinhood to trade altcoins, fee revenue rose sharply, and the stock price climbed. When the crypto market weakened, retail investors left, and Robinhood’s revenue quickly declined.
That relationship has not disappeared, but the source says it is no longer the only framework for understanding HOOD. Robinhood is not as dependent on crypto as it used to be. Even if the crypto market remains in its current sluggish state, stock trading, prediction markets, Pre-IPO access and the newly added underwriting business can still support performance growth, according to the author’s argument.
At the same time, the article does not claim that crypto will stop affecting HOOD. On the contrary, if the crypto market returns to a bull cycle, Robinhood’s crypto trading revenue is expected by the author to expand alongside it, allowing HOOD to continue benefiting from industry growth. The author summarizes the idea plainly: crypto can still affect HOOD, but HOOD is no longer dependent on crypto. For those who still have expectations for altcoins but are increasingly concerned about liquidity drying up, failed narratives and value capture, the source presents HOOD as an option with a higher margin of safety than waiting for an unknown token narrative to return.