Robinhood (HOOD) has delivered a notably strong share-price performance recently. During last night’s session, the stock briefly returned above the $100 mark, although it failed to hold that level into the close. The original author remains broadly optimistic about HOOD’s later performance, and argues that the recent rally can be explained from several angles, including operating data, new business lines and changes in the way investors value the company.
On the fundamentals side, Robinhood released its May operating data last week, giving the market another reference point for platform activity. On the news side, several developments have been more directly tied to investor sentiment. The first is the prediction market business, where Robinhood has started using its self-built prediction market, Rothera, to intercept traffic and revenue that previously involved Kalshi. According to the original text, related income is expected no longer to require sharing with Kalshi, a shift that Odaily discussed in its article titled “The First Prediction Market Concept Stock Has Appeared!”
The second area is IPO-related activity. SpaceX’s historic IPO brought record-level traffic to Robinhood. More importantly, Robinhood Securities, the company’s brokerage and clearing business unit, was approved last week to serve as an IPO underwriter. That approval gives Robinhood a path to play a more central role in future IPO activities, with Anthropic and OpenAI cited in the original article as examples. The U.S. Treasury has also selected Robinhood as the broker and initial trustee for “Trump Accounts.”
“Trump Accounts” are tax-deferred investment accounts authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump on June 9, 2025 under the “Big and Beautiful” bill. The plan is designed to establish government-funded savings accounts for children who are U.S. citizens and are born between January 1, 2025 and January 1, 2029. In the author’s framing, this means that tens of millions of American newborns over the coming years will default to Robinhood as their brokerage platform. Odaily previously described the development with the headline that Robinhood had gained a new group of shareholders, “the oldest aged 1 and the youngest aged -3.”
The author’s initial reason for building a HOOD position was a constructive view on the company’s Q2 earnings performance. That view was based on two main points: first, the expectation that stock-trading-related revenue would surge during what the author describes as an epic rally in U.S. equities; second, the expected boost in prediction market trading volume from the World Cup, together with the revenue-retention effect of Rothera. The later decision to move a larger portion of positions, mainly remaining crypto assets, into HOOD was based on a different and more central line of reasoning.
In early May, a friend asked the author what he had been buying recently, and the author mentioned HOOD. At that time, HOOD had just fallen from above $90 after Q1 earnings missed expectations. The short-term chart looked weak, and the main reason for the miss was an unexpected $100 million expense related to “Trump Accounts.” After hearing the explanation, the friend said his positions were already trapped and that he had little available capital left. When the author asked what he was holding, the answer was mostly altcoins. The author’s response at the time was: “Rather than remain attached to altcoins, it is better to switch directly into HOOD.”
The background to that judgment is Robinhood’s long-standing connection with crypto. For a considerable period, cryptocurrency-related revenue was an important component of Robinhood’s total revenue, and HOOD’s share-price movement had a strong correlation with the crypto market. Recently, however, the original article argues that signs have emerged showing Robinhood is breaking through its dependence on crypto and moving away from that correlation in a positive direction. Over the past five quarters, Robinhood’s crypto-related revenue share has been declining overall, and in Q1 that share fell to its lowest level since 2025.
The same change can be seen in a direct comparison between HOOD and BTC price movements. Since the beginning of the year, HOOD mostly traded in a pattern similar to BTC, but a clear divergence has appeared recently. The original author emphasizes these two points to explain that HOOD’s valuation logic has begun to change. In the past, HOOD was often treated as a “shadow stock” of the crypto market: when crypto surged, retail users rushed into Robinhood to trade altcoins, fee revenue jumped and the stock rose; when crypto weakened, retail users left, and Robinhood’s revenue quickly slid.
According to the article, Robinhood is no longer as dependent on crypto as it once was. Even if the crypto market remains in its current sluggish state, stock trading, prediction markets, Pre-IPO activity and the newly added underwriting business are all viewed as areas that can support growth. This does not mean crypto will stop influencing HOOD. On the contrary, if the crypto market returns to a bull cycle, Robinhood’s crypto-trading revenue is expected in the original analysis to rise along with it, allowing HOOD to continue benefiting from industry growth.
Put more directly, the author’s conclusion is that crypto still affects HOOD, but HOOD no longer depends solely on crypto. If a crypto bull market returns, HOOD can still rise with it; if crypto remains weak, HOOD has other business lines to rely on. For investors who still have expectations for altcoins but are increasingly concerned about drying liquidity, failed narratives and value-capture problems, the article argues that HOOD currently offers a higher-margin alternative than continuing to rely on a token waiting for its next narrative cycle.