Robinhood (HOOD) has shown notable strength in recent trading. Last night, the stock briefly moved back above the $100 level, although it failed to hold that mark into the close. Even so, the constructive view on HOOD’s next phase remains unchanged. The recent rally can be explained through several angles, including fundamentals, corporate developments and a visible shift in how the market is assessing Robinhood’s business mix.
On the fundamental side, Robinhood released its May operating data last week, giving investors fresh material to evaluate the platform’s activity. The more immediate boost, however, appears to come from a series of positive developments across business lines. One of the most important is prediction markets, described in the source as the fastest-growing area. Robinhood has begun using its self-built prediction market, Rothera, to intercept activity that previously involved Kalshi, with related revenue expected to no longer require sharing with Kalshi. Odaily’s earlier article, “The First Prediction Market Concept Stock Has Appeared!”, discussed that theme in more detail.
The IPO channel is another key part of the changing narrative. SpaceX’s historic IPO brought record-level traffic to Robinhood. More importantly, Robinhood Securities, the company’s brokerage and clearing unit, was approved last week to serve as an IPO underwriter. That approval means Robinhood is positioned to take a more central role in future IPO activity, with Anthropic and OpenAI cited in the original discussion as examples of the kind of major listings that could matter for the platform.
Robinhood has also been selected by the U.S. Treasury Department to act as the broker and initial custodian for “Trump accounts.” These accounts were authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump on June 9, 2025, under the “Big and Beautiful” bill. They are structured as tax-deferred investment accounts designed to create government-funded savings accounts for children who are U.S. citizens and are born between January 1, 2025 and January 1, 2029. In practical terms, tens of millions of newborns in the United States over the next several years will use Robinhood by default as their brokerage platform. Odaily’s article “Robinhood Has Gained a New Batch of Stock Investors, the Oldest Is 1 and the Youngest Is -3” provided further background on this development.
The author’s initial reason for building a position in HOOD was tied to expectations for the company’s Q2 earnings. One part of that logic was that the historic rally in U.S. equities would drive a major expansion in stock-trading-related revenue during the quarter. Another part was the expected increase in prediction market trading volume around the World Cup, together with Rothera’s role in retaining revenue that previously would have been shared.
The later decision to shift a larger portion of the portfolio, mainly some remaining crypto assets, into HOOD was based on a different line of reasoning. In early May, a friend asked the author what had been purchased recently, and HOOD was mentioned. At that moment, the stock had just fallen from above $90 after a Q1 earnings report that missed expectations, mainly because of an unexpected $100 million expense related to the “Trump accounts.” The short-term chart looked poor at the time.
After the author explained the earlier reasons for buying HOOD, the friend replied that most positions were trapped and that there was little cash left to deploy. When asked what those positions were, the answer was unsurprising: mostly altcoins. The author’s response was direct: “Rather than remain attached to altcoins, it would be better to rotate directly into HOOD.” That sentence captures the central argument of the article.
For a long period, crypto-related revenue was an important component of Robinhood’s total revenue, and HOOD’s stock price also had a strong relationship with cryptocurrency market movements. Recently, signs have emerged that Robinhood is breaking away from dependence on crypto-related business and is moving in a healthier direction away from that correlation. Looking at the past five quarters, Robinhood’s crypto-related revenue share has been declining overall, and the Q1 share fell to a new low since 2025.
A direct comparison between HOOD and BTC price movements also shows the shift. Since the beginning of the year, HOOD often moved in a pattern similar to BTC. Recently, however, a clear divergence has appeared. This matters because the valuation logic around HOOD is changing. In the past, HOOD was often treated as a “shadow stock” of the crypto market. When crypto prices surged, retail traders rushed into Robinhood to trade altcoins, fee revenue jumped and the stock rallied. When the crypto market weakened, retail activity faded and Robinhood’s revenue quickly deteriorated.
Robinhood no longer looks as dependent on crypto as it once did. Even if the crypto market remains in its current sluggish state, stock trading, prediction markets, Pre-IPO activity and the newly added underwriting business can still support growth in performance. This does not mean the crypto market will stop influencing HOOD. On the contrary, if crypto returns to a bull market, Robinhood’s crypto trading revenue is highly likely to expand as well, allowing HOOD to continue benefiting from sector growth. In simpler terms, crypto can still affect HOOD, but HOOD no longer depends on crypto: if a crypto bull market returns, HOOD can still rise with it; if crypto remains weak, Robinhood now has other lines of business to support the story.
For investors who still hold expectations for altcoins but are increasingly concerned about drying liquidity, fading narratives and weak value capture, the author argues that continuing to place hope in a token with an uncertain next narrative cycle is less attractive than considering HOOD. In that framing, HOOD currently offers a stronger margin of safety than many altcoin positions.