Surge in Prediction Market Revenue
According to analyst Dr. Crossroads, Robinhood's event prediction market business is expanding rapidly. As of June 25, the platform has recorded approximately 12.3 billion event contracts in the second quarter of 2026. Based on the standard revenue share of 1 cent per contract, this is expected to contribute at least $123 million in single-quarter revenue, pushing the annualized run rate (ARR) to $500 million. This figure is on track to rival or even surpass Robinhood's traditional cryptocurrency trading revenue.
Crypto Trading Under Pressure; Rothera Platform Redefines Fee Structure
In contrast, Robinhood's cryptocurrency trading revenue faces headwinds. Due to a decline in institutional trading volumes, Q2 crypto revenue is projected to drop below the $134 million recorded in Q1. Meanwhile, the newly launched prediction market platform Rothera has delivered strong initial performance, with over 900 million contracts traded in its first week, contributing roughly 60% of the incremental contract volume. Rothera is built on a full-stack, vertically integrated model that aims to disrupt the existing fee structure, where users currently pay 2 cents per contract (split evenly between Robinhood and partner exchanges). Under the new plan, fees could be reduced to as low as 0.6 cents per contract. This strategy is designed to achieve cost leadership and target the top three industry positions, while retaining the full economic benefit of trade execution within Robinhood's own ecosystem and passing savings to users.