KB Securities said in a Nov. 2 report that SK hynix could post 104 trillion won in operating profit in the fourth quarter of 2026, up 441% from a year earlier and potentially clearing the 100 trillion won mark for the first time in a single quarter. The brokerage maintained its Buy rating and a target price of 3.5 million won.
If that forecast is realized, South Korea’s two memory chip leaders would enter the single-quarter “100 trillion won club” one quarter apart, after Samsung Electronics reported its own first quarter above that level in the third quarter.
KB projects 104 trillion won in Q4 operating profit and 285 trillion won for the full year
Kim Dong-won, head of research at KB Securities, said SK hynix is expected to generate 104 trillion won in fourth-quarter operating profit, up 441% from the same period last year. Compared with the third quarter’s 83.3 trillion won, that would represent growth of about 25%.
The report attributed the expected earnings expansion to three factors:
- DRAM and NAND bit shipments are projected to rise 24% and 5% quarter on quarter, respectively
- Average selling prices, or ASP, are expected to keep climbing
- HBM4 is expected to account for a larger share of sales than HBM3E
For the full year, KB forecast SK hynix operating profit at 285 trillion won in 2026, up 504% year on year. It then sees profit expanding to 470 trillion won in 2027, a further 65% increase.
Kim said DRAM bit shipments are expected to rise 25% in 2027, while prices are projected to increase 40%. On that basis, he said the 104 trillion won expected in the fourth quarter would not be the peak, but rather “the starting point of a new earnings level.”
Third-quarter results and customer contracts support the forecast
KB’s projection was based on SK hynix’s third-quarter earnings released on Oct. 28. The company reported revenue of 104.6 trillion won, up 328% from a year earlier, and operating profit of 83.3 trillion won. Its operating margin reached 80%, more than 7% above market expectations, with both revenue and operating profit hitting record highs.
During its earnings call, SK hynix said it had signed long-term supply agreements, or LTAs, with 14 customers, including major global cloud service providers. The contracted volume accounts for more than 50% of the company’s total capacity for 2027 and 2028.
Management added that if demand currently under specific procurement discussions is included, DRAM and HBM output through 2029 is effectively sold out.
HBM4 entered mass production in Q3, while HBM4E samples were completed in Q2
On the product side, HBM4 entered mass production and shipments in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, both shipment bits and revenue contribution from HBM4 are expected to exceed HBM3E.
Management said HBM4 yields have been coming in above the company’s original targets. It also said HBM4E samples were completed in the second quarter, and that negotiations with major customers on 2027 HBM supply volumes and pricing have already been completed.
The company also said customer demand for HBM is running at more than twice current supply capacity, and that tight memory supply-demand conditions could continue through 2030.
Shareholder returns were the second major focus of the report
Beyond earnings, shareholder returns were another central point in KB’s report. SK hynix had previously said it plans to return about 100 trillion won to shareholders for the full year 2026. That includes at least 30 trillion won in cash dividends and more than 60 trillion won through share buybacks and cancellations, including a 40 trillion won buyback program that has already been completed.
The board also approved a third-quarter cash dividend of 14 trillion won and a 20 trillion won share repurchase. The third-quarter dividend came to 20,000 won per share, of which 10,000 won reflected improved earnings and another 10,000 won was a special dividend tied to gains from the disposal of its Kioxia investment.
Kim said the company has formally begun a push to raise shareholder value. He described the largest shareholder return program in the company’s history as a chance to narrow the gap between corporate value and the share price.
He added that SK hynix shares have fallen 50% from their peak, leaving the stock trading at only about 3 times forward earnings based on next year’s profit. He said that places the company in a rare undervalued zone comparable to the period of the global financial crisis.
Kim said the combination of “record earnings” and “undervaluation” could become a decisive turning point for a re-rating.
Samsung crossed the 100 trillion won line first
Before SK hynix, Samsung Electronics had already moved past the threshold. Samsung’s earnings released on Oct. 29 showed third-quarter consolidated revenue of 195.3 trillion won and operating profit of 107.4 trillion won, up 20% from the previous quarter. The company also extended its streak of record revenue and profit to four consecutive quarters.
Samsung likewise expects a prolonged supply shortage. It said tight memory supply is likely to continue through 2028, and projected that 60% to 70% of total capacity will be locked in by long-term supply agreements by 2030.
Even so, Samsung shares fell about 5% on the day its earnings were released. The article said the reasons included the market having already priced in the positive news and the fact that some shareholder return details will not be decided until late January 2027.
The report also noted that record earnings do not automatically translate into a higher share price. SK hynix had previously said that if market demand comes in below expectations, it would still adjust capital spending and the pace of mass production, and that such developments could trigger selling pressure.
