Odaily Seer reported fresh monitoring data from Polymarket’s prediction event for “2026 World Cup Group D, Round 1: United States vs. Paraguay.” In that market, a smart-money address identified as 0x38f0b76ed812c24166a4f6293f991ac4b9972768, with a win rate above 51%, bought more than $500,000 of the side that the United States will not beat Paraguay. The position was opened at an average price of 51.2¢.
More Than $500,000 Placed on the U.S. Not Winning
According to the figures shared by Odaily Seer, the address currently has an unrealized profit of $12,600 on this prediction-market position. The event corresponds to the first round of Group D in the 2026 World Cup group stage, featuring the United States against Paraguay. The selected outcome is not a direct bet on Paraguay to win; it is the “U.S. will not beat Paraguay” side, which represents the result that the United States fails to win the match.
The position stands out because of its size and the smart-money label assigned to the address. Odaily Seer described the wallet as smart money with a win rate of more than 51% and disclosed both its entry price and current floating profit. In prediction markets, price movements reflect how participants price event outcomes, making the 51.2¢ average entry price a key reference point for tracking the position’s profit and loss.
Home Advantage for the U.S., Defensive Profile for Paraguay
The match context includes several football-related details cited by Odaily. The U.S. team will have home advantage and defeated Paraguay in a friendly match in November 2025. Paraguay, led by head coach Gustavo Alfaro, has returned to the World Cup after a 16-year absence. The team is described as being strong in defensive organization and dangerous from set pieces.
On injuries and availability, Paraguay core player Julio Enciso is listed as doubtful due to a muscle issue, while U.S. defender Chris Richards has been confirmed available to play. Odaily Seer said it will continue to follow prediction markets under the phrase: “see the change before it is priced.”