According to CoinDesk, Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick said in a report released on Friday that the cryptocurrency market has reached the final bottom of the current monetary cycle. Kendrick placed Bitcoin’s cycle low at $59,000, a level that represents a 53% decline from the all-time high of $126,000 set on October 6. In his view, the market has completed the down phase of this cycle, and the next stage will be shaped by changes in fund flows and macro pressure.
$59,000 Identified as Bitcoin’s Cycle Low
Kendrick also set year-end price targets in the report. He expects Ether to reach $4,000 and Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of this year. The forecast is tied to his assessment that the market has already established a firm bottom. The drop from Bitcoin’s record high of $126,000 to $59,000, equal to a 53% drawdown, is one of the core data points behind his conclusion that the final bottom of this monetary cycle has been reached.
The Standard Chartered analyst identified two main factors supporting the current rebound. The first is the flow picture in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. In recent weeks, spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced the heaviest selling since their launch. Since the second week of May, total redemptions have exceeded $5.72 billion. Those outflows have added pressure to crypto asset prices and have become a key part of Kendrick’s market-bottom framework.
ETF Redemptions and Macro Conditions Drive the Rebound View
Kendrick also noted that, according to market rumors, ETF holders have been liquidating positions to free up capital for SpaceX’s initial public offering. He said SpaceX’s IPO on Friday would bring an end to the current selling pressure. Under that framework, the completion of the funding need linked to the IPO would make spot Bitcoin ETF flows an important signal for whether the market can stabilize after the recent wave of redemptions.
The second factor is the macro environment. Kendrick said that if a G7-related peace agreement between the United States and Iran is genuine, it would help prevent a surge in oil prices. Lower oil prices would restrain the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, thereby easing macro pressure on the cryptocurrency market. To confirm that the market bottom is solid, Kendrick said he will watch two developments in the coming days: the Monday announcement on Strategy’s (MSTR) Bitcoin purchases this week, and whether U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs return to net inflows on Friday.