TD Cowen this week initiated equity research coverage on three public Bitcoin treasury companies and one Ethereum digital asset treasury, while also publishing proprietary valuation models and sector-specific KPIs. That matters because it is not just another crypto market note. It signals that a major bank is starting to treat balance-sheet digital asset companies as a researchable equity segment with its own metrics, comparisons, and valuation logic.
The firm’s analysts, led by Lance Vitanza, continue to view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value and place it in the “digital gold” tradition. Based on that thesis, TD Cowen projects Bitcoin at roughly $140,000 by the end of 2026. From there, the bank argues that PBTCs—public Bitcoin treasury companies that accumulate BTC on their balance sheets and increase holdings on a per-share basis—now form a distinct and “investable equity category,” rather than simply acting as proxies for spot Bitcoin ETFs or high-beta technology stocks.
This framing is important for the broader market. Once a bank formally establishes research coverage over a new sector, it often lays the groundwork for other institutional functions as well, including wealth management, investment banking, and enterprise services. In other words, this is not only about stock ratings. It is also about building the analytical infrastructure needed for wider institutional engagement with Bitcoin treasury equities.
Nakamoto receives a Buy rating as PBTC stocks begin to trade on dedicated models
Among the companies covered, Nakamoto Holdings (NASDAQ: NAKA) received a Buy rating and a $1.00 price target, versus its April 8 closing price of $0.21. TD Cowen’s model forecasts $394 million in Bitcoin gains for fiscal year 2027 and applies a 2x multiple to that estimate. The target is also based on the bank’s assumption that Bitcoin reaches roughly $140,000 in December 2026.
TD Cowen’s rationale highlights the ways Nakamoto differs from other PBTC names. The company holds minority stakes in international Bitcoin treasury firms, including Metaplanet in Japan and Treasury BV in the Netherlands. It also operates subsidiaries across media, Bitcoin advocacy, and digital asset management. As a result, the stock is not being valued solely as a passive holder of BTC. Its operating structure introduces additional business lines that may influence how investors think about future growth and strategic positioning.
The bank stated its view plainly: it is initiating coverage of Nakamoto Holdings with a Buy rating and a $1.00 price target, based on projected FY27E Bitcoin dollar gains of $394 million, a 2x multiple, and a Bitcoin price of about $140,000 at Dec-26. That wording shows that PBTC analysis is moving toward a more disciplined model-based approach. Instead of relying purely on narrative momentum, the framework attempts to connect Bitcoin-related gains, per-share exposure, and valuation multiples in a way equity investors can compare across companies.
SharpLink Gaming (SBET) and Strive (ASST) were also assigned Buy ratings, with price targets of $16 and $26, respectively. The original report excerpt does not provide the same level of model detail for these two names, but their inclusion in the same initiation package suggests that TD Cowen is already applying a common analytical lens across multiple Bitcoin treasury-related equities.
At the same time, the firm is not treating every Bitcoin treasury stock as a one-way bullish bet. On April 9, TD Cowen lowered its price target on Strategy from $440 to $350 while maintaining a Buy rating. The firm cited a lower Bitcoin price outlook and a reduced valuation multiple on projected gains. It also cut its forecast for Strategy’s 2026 Bitcoin gains to $7.87 billion, down from $10.17 billion previously. That change indicates the bank is willing to recalibrate targets as macro assumptions shift, even within a constructive long-term view on Bitcoin.
For investors, that distinction is useful. Recognizing PBTC as an investable equity category does not mean all names deserve the same premium. The emerging framework is more selective: companies may be judged on projected Bitcoin gains, per-share BTC growth, capital structure, and the valuation multiple those gains can support under a given BTC price scenario.
Why TD Cowen is focused on the current policy cycle
TD Cowen has been increasingly vocal in recent months about the role of digital assets in the current market cycle, and the April 9 initiations mark the first time the firm has published company-specific models and ratings inside the PBTC space. That progression matters. It suggests the conversation has moved beyond macro commentary on crypto and into formal equity research on named issuers.
Back in January, TD Cowen described the United States as entering a rare pro-crypto policy window. The bank attributed that opening to aligned regulators, favorable political momentum, and a broader deregulatory push under President Trump’s second term. In that environment, companies that hold Bitcoin directly on their balance sheets may find it easier to gain institutional legitimacy and broader access to mainstream financial channels.
Still, TD Cowen’s view on reform is pragmatic rather than sweeping. The firm expects the most meaningful changes in 2026 to come through agency action rather than broad legislation. It specifically pointed to SEC exemptions, tokenization initiatives, and expanded banking access as likely channels of reform. That suggests the bank sees regulatory agencies and administrative action as the near-term drivers of market structure changes, rather than assuming Congress will quickly deliver comprehensive crypto legislation.
However, TD Cowen also warned that any gains achieved during this policy window need to be finalized quickly. Otherwise, they could be weakened or even reversed after the 2028 election. For Bitcoin treasury companies, that is not a minor political footnote. Regulatory durability could affect financing conditions, bank relationships, custody access, capital markets activity, and how comfortably institutions engage with the sector.
Viewed more broadly, the significance of this coverage goes beyond a handful of stock ratings. Once a major bank classifies PBTCs as a distinct and investable equity category, it gives the market a vocabulary and framework for analyzing them. That can lower the barrier for institutional investors, support more standardized comparisons across issuers, and potentially improve capital market recognition for companies building around Bitcoin balance-sheet strategies.
Disclosure in the original article: Bitcoin Magazine is published by BTC Inc, a subsidiary of Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA).