TD Cowen has launched formal equity research coverage on three public Bitcoin treasury companies and one Ethereum digital asset treasury company, introducing proprietary valuation frameworks and key performance indicators designed specifically for this emerging segment. The move is notable not simply because it adds a few analyst reports, but because it represents one of the clearest steps a major bank has taken to build a structured research architecture around Bitcoin-focused equities.
The bank’s analysts, led by Lance Vitanza, continue to treat Bitcoin as a long-term store of value, placing it in the “digital gold” tradition. Based on that thesis, TD Cowen projects a Bitcoin price of roughly $140,000 by the end of 2026. That assumption becomes the foundation for a broader argument: companies that systematically accumulate Bitcoin on their balance sheets and increase Bitcoin exposure on a per-share basis now deserve to be treated as a separate investable category within public equities.
In TD Cowen’s framework, PBTCs are distinct from spot Bitcoin ETFs and also distinct from conventional tech companies. A spot ETF mainly offers passive exposure to Bitcoin itself. By contrast, a Bitcoin treasury company introduces corporate strategy, capital markets execution, financing decisions, management quality, and operating leverage into the equation. That combination, in the firm’s view, justifies sector-specific models rather than reusing standard ETF or software equity comparisons.
Nakamoto Holdings receives a Buy rating
Among the companies under coverage, Nakamoto Holdings (NASDAQ: NAKA) received a Buy rating and a $1.00 price target, compared with its April 8 closing price of $0.21. TD Cowen’s valuation model projects approximately $394 million in Bitcoin gains for fiscal year 2027. It then applies a 2x multiple to that estimate, using the same core assumption that Bitcoin reaches about $140,000 by December 2026.
The firm stated its view directly: “We are initiating coverage of Nakamoto Holdings with a BUY rating and a $1.00 price target. Our PT is based on estimated BTC $ Gain of $394 million for FY27E, a 2x multiple, and a Bitcoin price of ~$140k at Dec-26.” This matters because the target is not framed as a simple momentum call. Instead, TD Cowen is trying to tie projected Bitcoin-related gains into a repeatable valuation method for treasury companies.
Nakamoto stands apart from many other PBTCs because its model is broader than balance-sheet accumulation alone. The company holds minority stakes in international Bitcoin treasury firms, including Metaplanet in Japan and Treasury BV in the Netherlands. It also operates subsidiaries across media, Bitcoin advocacy, and digital asset management. In practical terms, that gives Nakamoto a multi-layered exposure profile: direct treasury upside, strategic equity interests, and operating businesses connected to the Bitcoin ecosystem.
TD Cowen also assigned Buy ratings to SharpLink Gaming (SBET) and Strive (ASST), with price targets of $16 and $26, respectively. The significance here is that the firm is not making a one-off case for a single company. It is clearly attempting to define a broader sector and evaluate multiple names within the same analytical lens. For institutional investors, that makes cross-company comparisons easier and helps establish a recognizable market segment.
On April 9, TD Cowen also reduced its price target on Strategy to $350 from $440, while maintaining a Buy rating. The firm cited both a lower Bitcoin price outlook and a reduced valuation multiple on projected gains. It also lowered its forecast for Strategy’s 2026 Bitcoin gains to $7.87 billion, down from $10.17 billion previously referenced in its outlook. That revision shows that even within a constructive long-term view, the bank is willing to recalibrate assumptions as macro expectations shift.
The start of formal coverage has implications beyond the ratings themselves. When a major bank creates dedicated research coverage for a new category, it lays the groundwork for other business lines to engage with it more confidently. Wealth management teams can discuss the theme with clients, investment bankers can pursue capital markets opportunities, and enterprise service groups can support corporate participants. Research, in that sense, is not just commentary; it is part of the financial infrastructure that makes a sector legible to the broader market.
Why TD Cowen is emphasizing this policy cycle
Over recent months, TD Cowen has been increasingly vocal about the role digital assets may play in the current market cycle. The April 9 initiations are especially important because they mark the first time the bank has published company-specific models and ratings within the PBTC space. Before this, the discussion was more thematic and macro-oriented. Now it has moved into company-level analysis, which is where institutional adoption usually becomes more durable.
Earlier this year, in January, TD Cowen argued that the United States had entered what it described as a rare pro-crypto policy window. According to the firm, this window is being created by a combination of aligned regulators, political momentum, and a deregulatory push under President Trump’s second term. In such an environment, digital asset businesses may face fewer barriers, and banks, asset managers, and public companies may find it easier to expand participation.
The bank expects that meaningful reform in 2026 will come primarily through agency action rather than sweeping legislation. Examples it highlighted include SEC exemptions, tokenization initiatives, and broader banking access for digital asset activity. That distinction is important. It suggests that the most immediate changes may come not from Congress rewriting the rulebook all at once, but from regulators adjusting implementation, permissions, and operating boundaries in ways that materially improve market access.
At the same time, TD Cowen warned that this policy progress needs to be finalized quickly. Otherwise, any gains could be weakened or even reversed after the 2028 election. For Bitcoin treasury companies and digital asset equities more broadly, that policy window is not just a sentiment boost. It could directly affect valuation levels, funding options, bank connectivity, and the degree to which institutional investors are willing to treat the sector as mainstream.
Viewed as a whole, TD Cowen’s message is more sophisticated than a straightforward bullish call on Bitcoin. The bank is effectively arguing that if Bitcoin’s long-term store-of-value narrative remains intact, and if U.S. regulation becomes more supportive in practice, then publicly listed companies built around Bitcoin treasury strategies may evolve into a recognizable equity class of their own. That is why PBTCs, in its framework, deserve dedicated coverage, dedicated metrics, and dedicated investor attention.
Disclosure in the source article: Bitcoin Magazine is published by BTC Inc, a subsidiary of Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA).