Which asset can outperform Bitcoin in an upswing without using leverage? That was the question behind a three-stage screen from 0xResearch, which compared 10 candidates and ended with a clear pick: SOL. Even so, the report closed with a more conservative takeaway — if the goal is Bitcoin exposure, Bitcoin itself remains the best asset to own.
According to the report, Bitcoin has been cut in half since its October 2021 peak, but has rebounded 46.8% from its June 30 low. That leaves it one step short of a formal bull-market setup. ETH and SOL both fell harder than Bitcoin on the way down, so the real issue was not simply which asset rises faster, but which one can deliver a more reliable amplification of Bitcoin across a full cycle.
Test one: split beta into upside and downside
The first test broke weekly beta into upside and downside components, then paired that with relative return data across six bull legs and nine drawdowns since March 2020.
Only ETH, SOL, MSTR, and COIN showed two-year beta readings consistently above 1, with Bitcoin explaining most of their movement. Mining stocks were still volatile, but their relationship with Bitcoin had weakened. The report said that disconnect has been more visible since miners shifted toward AI.
ETH and SOL both showed a familiar pattern: they fell more in Bitcoin down moves than they gained in Bitcoin up moves. For ETH, that gap has narrowed recently, with one-year upside and downside beta at 1.39 and 1.48. MSTR looked more symmetrical, posting 1.23 on both sides over a two-year window. HYPE slightly outperformed on the way up and held up better on the way down, but its R² was only 0.18, leaving too much noise for it to rank near the top.
The report also said beta for ETH, SOL, and HYPE has cooled from late-2025 highs to around 1.2. The amplification effect is still there, just smaller than it was a year ago.
MSTR moved the other way. Its beta has been climbing toward the highest reading since 2021, while RIOT has already dropped below 1. In the report’s framing, listed companies that hold Bitcoin now amplify Bitcoin’s moves more than miners do. MSTR was described as the strongest current signal, reflecting both corporate-level leverage and the mNAV premium.
Test two: six bull legs, nine drawdowns
The second test looked at realized performance in bull and bear phases. A bull leg was defined as a rebound of more than 50% after a roughly 25% drawdown in Bitcoin’s daily closing price. By that definition, there have been six full bull legs since March 2020.
No candidate beat Bitcoin in every one of those episodes. SOL came closest, winning four out of five, with a median multiple of 3.54x. MARA and RIOT each outperformed in four of six, with median multiples of 1.62x and 1.68x. ETH beat Bitcoin in three of six, with a median multiple of 1.06x. MSTR did so in only two of five, with a median multiple of 0.64x.
The report said many of these assets outperform when the market is hot, but their downside amplification is more consistent than their upside amplification. MARA fell harder than Bitcoin in eight of nine drawdowns. ETH, MSTR, RIOT, and CLSK did so in seven of nine. SOL was the only candidate that leaned toward upside across multiple cycles, rising 149% versus Bitcoin’s 102%.
As for the current move, Bitcoin is up about 47% from the June 30 low, still short of the 50% threshold, so this bull leg remains provisional. So far, digital-asset treasury names have led the field: BMNR is up 102.8% and MSTR is up 90.1%, while CLSK, MARA, and RIOT are down 14.2%, 19.6%, and 29.4%.
Test three: is the beta real, or just noise?
When the report tried to rank the candidates, the methods did not agree. One approach used upside beta multiplied by correlation. Another used upside minus downside capture. The rank correlation between the two was only -0.10. Using the same two-year window for both pushed that figure down to -0.67.
HYPE showed the split most clearly. It ranked first on capture, but only eighth on beta times correlation, with correlation at 0.37. MSTR and COIN finished at the bottom on capture because they amplified both directions by roughly the same amount, yet both still had beta above 1 and correlation near 0.8 and 0.7, respectively.
That led to a third test centered on beta stability. The key question was whether a beta reading reflected genuine Bitcoin exposure or random noise.
Over the past two years, five names kept their 180-day beta around or above 1 while also maintaining at least 0.7 correlation with Bitcoin:
- SOL: beta above 1 on 100% of trading days, correlation 0.83
- MSTR: 100%, correlation 0.80
- BMNR: 100%, correlation 0.76
- ETH: 98%, correlation 0.88
- COIN: 89%, correlation 0.72
MARA, CLSK, HYPE, and RIOT failed the correlation cutoff, at 0.50, 0.41, 0.54, and 0.36.
SOL ranked first, while ETH looked better on a risk-adjusted basis
After combining all three tests, 0xResearch named SOL the winner. The report called it the most stable unlevered Bitcoin amplifier in the group. Over the past two years, its 180-day beta stayed above 1 on 100% of trading days. It beat Bitcoin in four of five full bull legs, posted a median multiple of 3.54x, and showed a positive bootstrap capture spread ranging from 0.30 to 1.99. Its composite rank was 2.0.
ETH and COIN, by comparison, carried beta in roughly the 1.2x to 1.35x range, with Bitcoin explaining most of their movement. But neither stood out on bull-leg capture, and both had bootstrap intervals hovering around zero.
The report still carved out a case for ETH. SOL’s lead came with a downside tilt, while ETH was described as the better risk-adjusted choice. Over the past two years, no Bitcoin amplifier beat Bitcoin itself on risk-adjusted returns, but ETH came closest among the candidates and posted the highest Sharpe ratio.
The final takeaway stayed restrained
The report’s closing line was blunt: if you want Bitcoin exposure, the best asset you can buy is Bitcoin.
It also ended with a separate data point on physical-infrastructure crypto projects. That segment just posted its best quarter on record, with revenue close to $6 million. Even so, the broader crypto industry generated about $1.3 billion in total revenue last quarter, leaving this category at just 0.45% of the total.
