A 0xResearch study carried by MarsBit argues that most so-called high-beta Bitcoin proxies have not delivered a reliable edge over BTC during the past two years. After running 10 candidates through three separate tests, the study lands on one main result: SOL was the most stable unlevered Bitcoin amplifier in the group. Even so, the report’s final takeaway is that investors seeking Bitcoin exposure are still best served by holding Bitcoin itself.
The study says Bitcoin has been cut in half since its October 2021 peak, though it has rebounded 46.8% from its June 30 low and remains one step short of a formal bull-market setup. ETH and SOL both fell harder than BTC on the way down, which led to the central question: is there any asset that can beat Bitcoin on the way up without using leverage?
Test one: split beta into upside and downside
The first screen broke weekly beta into upside and downside components, then compared each candidate against Bitcoin across six bull legs and nine drawdowns since March 2020.
Only ETH, SOL, MSTR, and COIN showed two-year beta consistently above 1, with Bitcoin explaining most of their price movement. Mining stocks were still highly volatile, but their relationship with Bitcoin was no longer as tight. The report says that has been the case, at least, since those companies pivoted toward AI.
ETH and SOL shared the same pattern in the directional beta split: they fell more in Bitcoin down moves than they rose in Bitcoin up moves. ETH’s gap has narrowed recently, with one-year upside and downside beta at 1.39 and 1.48. MSTR was symmetrical over the two-year window at 1.23 in both directions. HYPE slightly outperformed on the way up and held up better on the way down, but its R² was only 0.18, leaving too much noise for it to rank near the top.
The report also says beta for ETH, SOL, and HYPE has fallen back to around 1.2 from peaks reached in late 2025. The amplification effect is still there, but it is weaker than it was a year ago. MSTR, by contrast, is climbing toward its highest beta reading since 2021, while RIOT has dropped below 1. In the study’s framing, listed companies that hold Bitcoin now amplify BTC moves more effectively than miners do. MSTR gives the strongest signal, which the report ties to corporate leverage and its mNAV premium.
Test two: six bull legs and nine drawdowns
The second screen looked at realized performance in different market phases. A bull leg was defined as a rebound of more than 50% after a roughly 25% drawdown in Bitcoin’s daily closing price. By that definition, there have been six full bull legs since March 2020.
No candidate beat Bitcoin in every one of those periods. SOL came closest, winning four out of five with a median multiple of 3.54x. MARA and RIOT each beat Bitcoin in four of six bull legs, with median multiples of 1.62x and 1.68x. ETH beat Bitcoin in three of six, at 1.06x. MSTR won only two of five, with a median multiple of 0.64x.
The report says these assets often outperform when the market is hot, but the downside amplification is more stable than the upside amplification. MARA fell harder than Bitcoin in eight of nine drawdowns. ETH, MSTR, RIOT, and CLSK did so in seven of nine. SOL was the only candidate that showed an upside bias across multiple cycles, rising 149% against Bitcoin’s 102%.
The current move is still treated as provisional. Bitcoin has risen about 47% from its June 30 low, which is still short of the 50% threshold used in the study. So far, digital-asset treasury names have led the field: BMNR is up 102.8% and MSTR is up 90.1%, while CLSK, MARA, and RIOT are down 14.2%, 19.6%, and 29.4%.
Test three: is the beta real, or just noise?
The study then ranked the candidates in two ways. One used upside beta multiplied by correlation. The other used upside-minus-downside capture. The correlation between those two ranking methods was only -0.10. When both were measured over the same two-year window, it fell to -0.67.
HYPE showed the gap clearly. It ranked first on capture, but only eighth on beta times correlation, with correlation at 0.37. MSTR and COIN finished at the bottom on capture because they amplified both directions by roughly the same amount, yet both still had beta above 1 and correlations close to 0.8 and 0.7.
That led to a third test focused on stability. The question was whether a beta reading reflected genuine Bitcoin exposure or just statistical noise. Over the past two years, five names kept their 180-day beta around or above 1 while maintaining correlation of at least 0.7 with Bitcoin:
- SOL: beta above 1 on 100% of trading days, correlation 0.83
- MSTR: 100%, correlation 0.80
- BMNR: 100%, correlation 0.76
- ETH: 98%, correlation 0.88
- COIN: 89%, correlation 0.72
MARA, CLSK, HYPE, and RIOT did not clear that correlation bar. Their readings were 0.50, 0.41, 0.54, and 0.36.
SOL ranked first, while ETH looked better on a risk-adjusted basis
After all three screens, the study names SOL as the winner. It calls SOL the most stable unlevered Bitcoin amplifier in the set. Over the past two years, its 180-day beta stayed above 1 on 100% of trading days. It beat Bitcoin in four of five full bull legs, posted a median multiple of 3.54x, and showed a positive bootstrap capture spread ranging from 0.30 to 1.99. Its composite rank was 2.0.
ETH and COIN, by comparison, carried beta in the 1.2x to 1.35x range, with Bitcoin explaining most of their movement. But neither stood out on bull-leg capture, and both had bootstrap intervals hovering near zero. The report says the full scorecard appears below.
The study also makes room for ETH. Because SOL’s lead comes with a downside tilt, ETH is described as the better risk-adjusted choice. Over the past two years, no Bitcoin amplifier beat Bitcoin itself on risk-adjusted returns, but ETH came closest among the candidates and posted the highest Sharpe ratio.
Bottom line: if you want Bitcoin exposure, buy Bitcoin
The report ends with a blunt conclusion: if the goal is Bitcoin exposure, the best asset available is Bitcoin. Proxies can outperform in certain stretches, but that edge is not stable, and the tendency to amplify downside has been more dependable than the tendency to amplify upside.
The article closes with a separate data point: physical infrastructure crypto projects just recorded their best quarter on record, with revenue close to $6 million. Even so, against roughly $1.3 billion in total crypto industry revenue last quarter, that segment accounted for only 0.45%.
The piece was written by 0xResearch and translated by TechFlow.