Gold keeps breaking records while Bitcoin is stuck in a range. In a new interview on CNBC's Squawk Box, BitMine CEO Tom Lee called the divergence a "huge disappointment" for digital assets. Gold has surpassed $5,000 as the U.S. dollar weakens and demand from countries like China surges. Meanwhile, Bitcoin repeatedly fails to clear key resistance levels.
Why Gold Wins: Weak Dollar, Strong Demand — and Trauma in Crypto
Lee attributed gold's rally to a soft dollar and robust buying from central banks and Chinese investors. In contrast, the crypto market is still "traumatized" by a series of crashes, making its recovery unusually slow. Although a weak dollar and high global demand normally fuel blockchain growth, the sector is now held back by past market trauma and new political shocks.
The Root Cause: October 10 Deleveraging and the 'Greenland Shock'
Lee pointed to the October 10, 2025 deleveraging event as the worst crash in digital asset history — even bigger than the FTX collapse. The situation worsened with the "Greenland Shock," a political event triggering tariff fears that made global investors extremely risk-averse. A pricing glitch triggered automatic sales for roughly 2 million accounts, wiping out nearly a third of market-making firms. Bond price volatility forced traders to liquidate risky assets at the worst time. Under stress, investors flee to gold for safety; they often sell Bitcoin simply to raise cash rather than hold it as a hedge.
Historical Pattern Points to Capital Rotation from Gold to Bitcoin
Despite recent volatile performance, Lee sees a repeating cycle: scared investors first rush into gold. Once gold peaks and cools, that money rotates into Bitcoin. Past examples: after gold hit a high and retreated, Bitcoin surged nearly 1,000%. Another similar gold pause preceded a 400% rally in crypto. Currently, gold has dropped 13% from $5,600 to $4,892. If history repeats, this gold "cooling" signals capital about to flow back into Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Outlook 2026: Bumpy Path to $250,000
Lee views the rocky early 2026 as a transition phase, not the end. While the market adjusts to a "new Fed" and a new White House, blockchain adoption is still outpacing gold. He maintains his $250,000 Bitcoin target for 2026, pending a new all-time high that proves the "crash era" is over. Once major trading firms mend their balance sheets — typically taking 8 to 12 weeks — big banks are expected to lead the next rally.